Improved forecast cones, inland alerts, a mobile-friendly website and hurricane-hunting drones are among the updates designed to help the public better understand tropical threats.
The busiest part of the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are rolling out several new tools to help communities prepare.
Daniel Brown, operations division chief at the National Hurricane Center, recently joined meteorologists Joe Martucci and Dan Skeldon on the Tidal Flooding Talk podcast to discuss the remainder of the season and changes to the center’s forecasts and public information services.
Although hurricane season begins June 1, tropical activity typically increases sharply during August, September and October. Brown said late July is an ideal time for families and businesses to review evacuation plans, replace expired supplies and make sure they are ready to act.
Even during a season expected to produce fewer storms than average, Brown cautioned against becoming complacent.
“It really only takes that one storm,” he said.
Hurricane Andrew demonstrated that danger in 1992. Andrew was the first named storm of an otherwise relatively quiet season, but it became a Category 5 hurricane and caused catastrophic destruction in South Florida.
A More Informative Forecast Cone
One of the National Hurricane Center’s most recognizable products is the forecast cone, which shows the probable path of a storm’s center.
The cone does not show the full area that could experience wind, rain, flooding or storm surge. Those impacts can stretch far beyond its boundaries.
“The cone was on a diet, but the storms really weren’t,” Brown said, explaining that improving track forecasts have made the cone narrower while hurricanes themselves have not become smaller.
To address that problem, the National Hurricane Center’s main cone graphic now includes inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. The change means residents far from the immediate coastline will be able to see more clearly when dangerous winds could reach their communities.
The center coordinates those inland alerts with local National Weather Service offices. The addition could be particularly valuable during fast-moving hurricanes that carry damaging winds deep into the interior.
Brown pointed to Hurricane Helene as an example of a system that brought severe winds through parts of Georgia, South Carolina and western North Carolina. A similar tool could also help communicate the inland threat from a fast-moving Northeast hurricane.
Experimental Cone Raises Probability to 90%
The National Hurricane Center is also introducing an experimental forecast cone that represents a 90% probability of containing the storm’s center.
The traditional cone is designed so the center remains inside its boundaries roughly two-thirds of the time. The new version is intended to show a more complete range of likely outcomes.
Despite the jump from roughly 67% to 90%, Brown said the experimental cone is only slightly wider. Most of the added area extends farther along the forecast track because forecasters often have greater uncertainty about how quickly a storm will move than whether it will shift left or right.
The experimental product will be available on the Hurricane Center’s website with each advisory. Brown said early feedback has been positive, and the 90% cone could become operational as soon as next season if that response continues.
Forecast accuracy has improved considerably over the past two decades. Brown estimated that the cone shrank by approximately 40% between 2005 and 2015.
Improvements have slowed more recently, but new artificial intelligence forecasting models may help forecasters continue reducing track errors.
Clearer Tropical Outlooks
The center has also changed how it displays disturbances that have no chance of becoming tropical storms or hurricanes.
In previous years, a disturbance could remain marked on the graphical tropical weather outlook even after its development chance dropped to zero. That sometimes confused people who saw the symbol but did not open the accompanying forecast.
Those systems will now appear with a gray “X.”
The symbol tells users that forecasters are still monitoring the disturbance, possibly because it is producing heavy rain or gusty winds, but that tropical development is not expected.
A Mobile-Friendly Hurricane Website
As more people receive weather information through their phones, the Hurricane Center has launched a redesigned website at hurricanes.gov/mobile.
The site automatically adjusts to phones, tablets and desktop computers. It features a more modern layout, clearer headlines and easier access to forecasts and preparedness information.
Brown said the mobile website also gives the center a place to test features that may eventually be incorporated into its primary website.
The agency is expanding its social media outreach as well, including short vertical videos explaining hurricane forecasts, hazards and preparedness.
Drones Enter the Hurricane
Forecasters are also testing small uncrewed aircraft that can be released from Hurricane Hunter planes.
After leaving the aircraft, the drone’s wings open and allow it to fly through areas much closer to the ocean’s surface than a crewed plane can safely travel. That region, known as the boundary layer, contains important information about a hurricane’s winds and interaction with the water below.
Testing began during previous hurricane seasons and will continue this year. The drones could eventually provide forecasters with more detailed measurements from the most dangerous parts of a storm.
Preparation Does Not End at Landfall
Brown also emphasized that hurricane safety must continue after the storm passes.
Power outages, damaged roads, extreme heat, generators and cleanup work can all create deadly conditions during the recovery period. Residents should check on neighbors, particularly older adults and others who may need assistance.
For coastal communities, the message remains simple: Do not judge the season by the number of storms or assume the forecast cone represents the entire danger zone.
A quiet Atlantic can change quickly, especially once August begins. Preparing before a storm forms gives families more time to make careful decisions instead of rushing when watches and warnings are issued.
