Tag: snow

The 2025-2026 winter outlook has similarities to last winter’s weather. However, there’s enough support in the forecast to give snow lovers hope this season. My Jersey Shore friends, it’s that time of the year again – time for the winter forecast.

With the sun setting by 5 p.m., holiday decorations for sale at nearly every store and sweatshirt weather during the day, snow season is around the corner.

Before we get into predictions, here’s a few important notes to remember:

1. I don’t do my own winter forecasting. It takes a lot of time and research that begins in August and ends around Halloween. This forecast is a mix of some research I’ve done and information from trusted sources like Steve DiMartino of NY NJ PA Weather, a fellow certified digital meteorologist.

2. Miles make a difference. In one storm, Ocean City could be all rain, while Egg Harbor Township has 3 inches of snow and Asbury Park has a foot. This forecast is for the general shore area, not one particular house.

3. Average snowfall is meaningless at the shore area. Atlantic City International Airport averages 17.3 inches of snow, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. However, since records began in 1944, four winter seasons had less than an inch of snow, and six were buried in more than 40 inches of snow.

4. The ocean, which keeps our fall warmer than the New Jersey Turnpike corridor during the fall, also keeps us milder during the winter. An onshore wind with a nor’easter will keep the lawns brown, not white. You have to go to northwestern New Jersey, the Poconos and places north to be guaranteed snow.

Still, the winter forecast is exciting. It’s the most popular outlook of the year and I love talking about it with you.

How did last year’s winter forecast do?

Lower Township, at the southern end of Cape May County, had the most snow in the entire Jersey Shore area – 20.5 inches fell there. In fact, the only places in the state that were higher were northwest of Interstate 287, in the typically colder northwest New Jersey.

Otherwise, most of Atlantic, Cumberland and Cape May counties saw between 12 and 18 inches of snow. Farther north, the rest of the shore only had 7 to 12 inches.

Last year’s forecast column stated: “It’s safe to say that we can expect fewer storms with a possibility of snow.” I gave the shore a 65% chance of snow being 3 inches below the 14.8-inch seasonal snow average at the immediate coast, and the 17.4-inch average for the mainland. Consider it a pretty good forecast.

The not-so-great forecast was the coastal flooding outlook. I wrote that “near-to-slightly-above-average coastal flooding” was likely. Thank goodness this was wrong. Coastal flooding and beach erosion were nearly nonexistent.

The column also stated that temperatures would be “warmer than usual overall.” Turns out, our 37.9-degree average from December to March was just above the 30-year climate average of 37.6 at Atlantic City International Airport. At the beaches, the average at Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City was 38.9 degrees – below the average of 39.7.

Quick Jersey Shore winter forecast

Expect a couple of lighter snow events (less than 4 inches), with a better-than-average chance for bigger storms (4 to 8 inches). However, massive snow of more than a foot is less likely than usual.

Temperatures should be about average when everything is said and done. However, this should be due to big swings in temperatures averaging out to near average throughout the year. Four days of near-60-degree weather, followed by four days of 30-degree weather, is a strong possibility. Our first sustained cold shot looks to be at some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Expect more coastal storms than usual. At the risk of sounding wishywashy, some will be mostly rain, and some will be mostly snow.

Beach erosion and tidal flooding will be more of a quantity than a quality (big issues) thing. However, with the beaches already damaged in spots, it’s a concern.

Jersey Shore winter forecast in more detail

The outcomes for this winter will be largely driven by three factors.

1. Weak La Niña, or colder-than-average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

2. Much warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, off the United States West Coast.

3. Less-than-usual Arctic Ocean sea ice in North America.

You can’t start a winter forecast without looking at the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This explains whether water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are warmer or colder than average. We’re in La Niña, so it’s cooler than average.

However, a weak La Niña is only expected to last until February, according to NOAA. We may then go into a neutral state for the rest of the winter. Either way, the point is La Niña favors a slightly cooler and drier winter.

The next two factors both support stormier-than-usual winter patterns. The relatively warm water off the West Coast supports a storm track right through the Mid-Atlantic. Storms during the winter love a clash of cold and mild, and these line up perfectly for our region to be the battleground.

Meanwhile, sea ice is well below average on the North American continent. Unless something crazy happens, it will stay this way. That opens the jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high – which is also the storm track, causing it to look like a rollercoaster, snaking south to north over the Eastern United States.

When the Jersey Shore is on the northern side of the track, storms are mostly snow. When the Jersey Shore is on the southern side of the track, they are mostly rain. Expect to see the classic 55 degrees and rain in Cape May, with 30 degrees and snow in Trenton a few times.

It’s tempting to go above average for snow at the Jersey Shore given all of this, with one or two big snows. However, the coastal storms that do develop off this jet stream will tend to start in Virginia or North Carolina. Even if it is mostly snow for us, they will have a short “runway” as they move northeast to develop heavy precipitation. These are called Miller B storm systems.

The high number of expected storms increases the likelihood of a few significant snowfalls, ranging from 4 to 8 inches. However, without a storm forming off the coast of Georgia or Florida – known as Miller A storms – it’s unlikely we’ll see major snow accumulations.

I expect more than the usual number of tidal flooding and beach erosion days. Most of these should be minor to perhaps moderate issues, but with the weakened state of our beaches in some locations, this will bring worse-than-usual impacts. The good news is the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection believes the sand that was eroded will return by natural processes next spring. It won’t repair the dune cliffs seen along Jersey Shore; it will only fill in the erosion on the more gently sloping sand.

Being a citizen scientist, for cheap

The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) is the nation’s largest group of volunteers in the weather community. Each day, over 200 people in New Jersey and thousands across the United States report on how much precipitation they receive.

For $50 upfront (to purchase the rain gauge), your observations will be used by many in the weather community. I look at this constantly during storms and would love to see what you have at your home. In fact, New Jersey’s official state record for most yearly precipitation is from a CoCoRaHS gauge.

We hope to see your reports this winter!

Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live/.

History shows that when July is hotter than usual and August is cooler than usual, like what just happened at the Jersey Shore this year, it’s a good clue about what the coming winter might be like. Here’s why past weather patterns suggest it could be colder than average.

Using information from the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist, where I did research during my senior year at Rutgers University, I collected average temperature data for every month since 1895. I focused on the Coastal Zone, which the climate office describes as areas east of the Garden State Parkway in Monmouth, Ocean and Atlantic counties, plus almost all of Cape May County.

Snowfall data came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for Lower Township, Atlantic City International Airport, Atlantic City and Long Branch. While Atlantic City doesn’t report snowfall anymore, they did from 1874 to the 1950s, which I used for this project.

What do a hot July and a cooler August mean for the Jersey Shore’s winter temperatures?

Going back to 1895, there have been 18 years when a cooler-than-average August followed a hotter-than-average July in the Coastal Zone. That includes 2025 when August wound up 3.2 degrees below average – 31st coolest of the 130 years of record keeping. July was 2.4 degrees above average – the sixth hottest on record. The most recent such period before that was 2017.

Average here is defined as the period of record average from 1895 to 2025. Usually, though, meteorologists use a 30-year average to discuss what is above or below average. The period of record average is cooler than the most recent 30-year average due to the changing climate.

I then investigated what temperatures were for December through March for the months following those July-August stretches. There was a strong signal for temperatures to be colder than our most recent 30-year average. The 17 years broke down like this for the four-month December-March period.

Colder than average for all four months: 3
Three months colder than average: 7
Two months colder than average: 5
One or no months colder than average: 2

In other words, 59% of years had all months colder than the 1991-to-2020 average; 12% had no or only one month colder than average.

If September is chilly, too, history says a frigid winter is likely.

September is also likely to be cooler than the period of record average, given the first 10 days of the month, as well as the forecast through at least Sept. 18.

The historical likelihood that winter will be colder than average, based on just those years, is even higher. Of the 12 times this happened, 10 had at least three months between December and March that were colder than average.

Hot July, cool August: Snowy winter at the Jersey Shore?

The history books don’t show a clear link between a super-hot July and a cooler-than-usual August when it comes to snowy winters. Here’s what we found about snow at four Jersey Shore weather stations after 17 winters with that kind of July and August:

Lower Township: 6 winters had more snow, 7 had less.

Atlantic City International Airport: 3 winters had more snow, 9 had less.

Atlantic City: 3 winters had more snow, 4 had less.

Long Branch: 6 winters had more snow, 4 had less.

Each weather station has been around for different amounts of time, so the number of years checked isn’t the same for all. But if you love snow, you might be excited to know that the last two times this happened (the winters of 2017-’18 and 2013-’14), there was more snow than usual. Also, if September is cooler than normal, the chances of a snowy winter go up. Out of 12 years with a hot July, cool August, and cool September, most had more snow than average.

Does history matter when it comes to this winter’s forecast?

September is in the middle of the August-to-October time frame that long-range forecasters typically use to do their winter forecasts. As part of their research, they look at what the weather in previous springs and summers was like. They then look at what the following winter was like to give them an idea of what to expect. So if, for example, 2017 had conditions similar to 2025, they’d look at the winter of 2017-’18 to give New Jerseyans an idea of what this winter will be like.

They’re called analog years in the weather world. While each forecaster has their own winter formula, analog years are a part of the process, but usually not the main source of information they use.

I don’t do my own winter forecast. However, look for a winter forecast by the top Northeast experts in October. We can read whether they used the winter of 2017-’18 or 2013-’14 as an analog year.

9/11 at the Jersey Shore

In this Shore Local Weather Column, published on Sept. 11, let’s reflect on the tragic events of Sept. 11, 2001. That day brought uncertainty, pain and incredible strength to our nation. As Alan Jackson’s song asks, “Where were you when the world stopped turning?”

If you’re old enough to remember, take a moment to think back on where you were. You might also consider visiting one of the 9/11 memorials along the Jersey Shore. My favorite is in Absecon – it’s powerful, with a lifelike replica of the Twin Towers that’s both beautiful and deeply moving.

Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live/.