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When a hurricane or coastal storm approaches, most people focus on what is happening above the ocean: wind speed, waves, rainfall and the storm track.
But some of the most important changes are happening below the ocean surface.
That was a major topic on this week’s Tidal Flooding Talk. Joe Martucci, Dan Skeldon and Palma Shiles spoke with Julia Engdahl of Rutgers University’s Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, better known as RU COOL. The group studies the ocean using tools including underwater gliders, buoys and high-frequency radar.
These observations can help scientists understand how the ocean interacts with hurricanes and other coastal storms.
One important factor is ocean stratification. Ocean water is not always mixed evenly from the surface to the bottom. Different layers can have different temperatures and salt levels.
That matters because warm ocean water provides energy to tropical storms. A storm can also mix the ocean as strong winds churn the water. If cooler water below the surface mixes upward, it may reduce the amount of warm water available to the storm. But if warm water extends deeper into the ocean, there can be more energy available.
Engdahl explained that Rutgers researchers study something called potential energy anomaly, or PEA. In simple terms, it measures how much energy would be needed to completely mix the water column. A high value means the ocean is strongly layered, while a low value means the water is already well mixed.
Getting these measurements is not easy.
Weather observations are common on land, but there are fewer observations beneath the ocean. Gliders help fill that gap. These unmanned vehicles move through the water using changes in buoyancy instead of a traditional motor. Rutgers can send them across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to measure temperature, salinity and other ocean conditions before and during storm season.
Better underwater observations could eventually improve hurricane forecasting, especially as scientists build models that connect the atmosphere and ocean together.
The discussion also turned to coastal flooding communication.
A forecast of an eight-foot storm surge may be scientifically correct, but that number may not mean much to someone trying to decide whether their home or road will flood. Engdahl suggested showing flood depths in a way people can picture, such as water reaching someone’s knees or chest.
That is an important lesson for coastal science.
Better data matters. Better models matter. But the final step is making sure people understand what that information means for the places where they live.
