If Superstorm Sandy hit New Jersey in 2026, three things would be different: the warnings, the ocean’s starting level and the forecast cone.
Sandy struck near Brigantine on Oct. 29, 2012. It had just changed from a hurricane into a post-tropical storm, but it still brought deadly flooding and destructive winds.
Here’s how a similar storm would be different today.
1. Different warnings
In 2012, New Jersey received high wind and coastal flood warnings. Forecasters expected Sandy to lose its tropical features before reaching land. Under the rules then, hurricane warnings would have needed to end when that change happened.
The rules changed in 2013. Hurricane warnings can now stay in place after a storm becomes post-tropical. That means they could be used for a storm like Sandy today.
Storm surge watches and warnings, introduced in 2017, would also help warn people about dangerous seawater flooding.
2. A higher ocean
Sea levels have risen along New Jersey’s coast since Sandy. A similar storm would now push water inland from a higher starting point.
With the same storm and tide conditions, that could mean deeper flooding or water reaching more places. The difference would depend on the location, flood protection projects and other local changes.
3. A narrower forecast cone
Better hurricane track forecasts have helped shrink the National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone.
Compared with 2012, the cone’s radius is about 30% smaller at 24 hours and 33% smaller at three days. This could help emergency managers focus their preparations.
But the cone only shows where the storm’s center will likely travel. Dangerous winds and flooding can reach far outside it. A smaller cone does not mean a smaller storm—or that people outside it are safe.
