INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST | Happy 250! Today is the last day of the extreme heat, but it will take another round of storms tonight to break it. Here are the details! Stay hydrated!
Come visit Headley Family Farm at 120 Province Road in West Creek! It’s where farming the pines meets the Jersey Shore. Get your Jersey Fresh produce here. Open weekends and some weekdays. Call us at 609-848-3763 or follow us on Facebook, too!
🥵FRIDAY’S FORECAST | Dangerous heat continues across the region today with triple-digits inland and 90s at the beaches. Will storms threaten the region? Here’s the latest!
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July 3 to July 5 is forecast to be the hottest stretch of weather this decade, and Cup A Joe Weather has full coverage to get you informed and safe.
Look for regular updates right here throughout the day Thursday.
Stream our 24×7 Jersey Shore Weather Channel: https://www.youtube.com/live/Gn74OsNF4wQ
1145AM Thursday
The cooling sea breeze is really doing its thing. It’s 76F in Atlantic City and in Harvey Cedars!
Sweltering inland though… A few spots hit 
already 
.
How’re you feeling?
910AM Thursday
Here’s why New Jersey is seeing record breaking heat over the next couple of days.
This satellite image tells the story of why New Jersey is baking under dangerous heat.
First, notice where the clouds are and are not. Across New Jersey, skies are mainly sunny. That sunshine is not an accident. A strong area of high pressure over the Mid-South is keeping rain and clouds away from us.
High pressure systems spin clockwise. You can see that on the satellite image, with clouds wrapping from Texas toward Michigan, then into Maine and down toward Florida. New Jersey is sitting inside the dry, sunny side of that circulation.
Think of the high pressure as stiff-arming the clouds and rain away from the Garden State. With the heat dome overhead, dry air in place, and strong sunshine beating down, the ground heats up even more.
On top of that, winds are coming from the west. During the summer, a west wind can help bring some of our hottest temperatures to the Jersey Shore region.
That combination is why heat warnings are in effect for inland Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May counties, as well as all of Monmouth County. This is life-threatening heat, especially for people without reliable air conditioning, outdoor workers, older adults, young children and anyone with health concerns.
730AM Thursday
🥵THURSDAY’S FORECAST | Our first of 3 days of record threatening heat is today, New Jersey. Stay hydrated, stay in the A/C and stay safe. I’ll tell you where the 4th of July fireworks has the best chance of happening dry, too.
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630AM Thursday
HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE 2020s | We’ve talked about it for days and now it’s here. Brutal, record threatening heat for the next 3 days. This is what we’re up against. Good news? It won’t be *all* that humid.
On June 30, 2026 Dave Robinson, the New Jersey State Climatologist since 1991 and Distinguished Professor at Rutgers University, retired.
Dave Robinson is my birthday buddy (May 13th), research advisor (2013), Monthly Weather Roundup co-host, weather dad and friend.
He is New Jersey climate. In the science world, knowing your stuff and communicating that stuff doesn’t always go hand in hand. He mastered both. He’d just ask quickly do a Zoom call for an interview as he would spit off a list of the top 10 most humid years in New Jersey’s history.
“What I find incredibly inspiring about Dave is that he really was the essence of the office for several decades,” John Krasting, the incoming state climatologist said. “I’m going to be inheriting a wonderful program that has developed over the years into one of the leading state climate offices in the nation.”
My journey with Dr. Robinson began in 2013, during my last semester at Rutgers, when I wanted to do research for credit. The topic was dew point climatology, looking at moisture in the air across different parts of New Jersey.
That report is still somewhere at the State Climate Office, or maybe at Dave’s home. Either way, it became a valuable learning experience. It also gave me the chance to meet Mat Gerbush, the assistant state climatologist, and a young Dan Zarrow, now Chief Meteorologist for NJ 101.5 and Townsquare New Jersey.
After I graduated, it would be six years before Dave and I connected again.
We were both at the New Jersey Emergency Preparedness Association conference in Atlantic City. He was there to give a talk. I was there to cover it as the new meteorologist for The Press of Atlantic City.
For months, I had wanted to talk with him about New Jersey weather and climate. He had long been such a positive, trusted voice for science in the state. Still, I was nervous. We hadn’t talked in years. Would he remember me?
I’m pretty sure he did.
I walked up to him, we made small talk, and he asked about my career. Then I asked if he would be interested in doing a podcast episode with me for The Press. The show was called Something in the Air, and the idea was to look back at the previous month’s weather and place it in the larger context of climate.
He said yes.
The issue was figuring out how to do it remotely. He was in Piscataway. I was in Galloway. It was 2019: pre-COVID, pre-work-from-home, pre-remote-everything.
We ended up using Stockton University’s TV program, where The Press produced its newsmagazine show, -30-. The first couple of episodes were shaky, but they worked. I can’t find video from those early days.
Then COVID happened.
No more TV studio. Instead, I used a new program called Zoom to interview him. No virtual backgrounds, no polished setup. Just my apartment and his kitchen.
It worked, but it a far cry from today.
There were many early struggles then, mainly my fault. I couldn’t get my external mic to work on Zoom. We’d have weird black spots on the video from the video boxes being the wrong space. I think one time I forgot to hit record. Still, he kept recording with me giving grace (perhaps having the same birthday helped).
Eventually, the Something in the Air podcast turned into the Monthly Weather Roundup. We did it almost every month for years! Two of them, my other weather dad, Jim Eberwine, filled in.
The longest break was after Lee Enterprises laid me off in June 2024. I took the summer off to regroup and when I started Cup A Joe Weather and Drone, the Monthly Weather Roundup came back in October 2024.
The publicity of the episode has only grown since then. We’re back into audio podcasts, we create vertical videos from the episodes and break out parts of the show. Subtitles were added earlier in 2026 to increase your experience. All was good.
When Dave told me he was retiring, I was happy for him. He loved his work. The days (and nights) were long. He has his kids, wife and most importantly, his grandkids. He loves to travel and now he could go during the semester!
Even he doesn’t know how he’ll go from 60 hour work weeks to retirement. A Yankees game the day after his retirement and trip to Europe following that will help a bit. The reality will probably settle in later this summer. He’s also moving on from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, which he ran for years.
I hope you all enjoyed this iteration of the Monthly Weather Roundup. We documented every month of New Jersey weather for the past 7 years, giving important context that a brief sound bite or quote in an article can’t do.
“People have some level of knowledge, but they often do not appreciate the full impact weather and climate have on every aspect of society. It affects transportation, the economy, tourism, emergency management, agriculture, the environment and daily life,” Robinson said.
Now, I hope his daily life is full of snow for cross-country skiing, sunshine for his biking and time with his family.
The month of June has brought alarming news regarding drought conditions across New Jersey. As of the end of June, areas stretching from Long Beach Island down to Cape May County are experiencing extreme drought (D3), while much of the state is under severe (D2) and moderate drought (D1) categories. Farmers, like those from Headley Family Farm in Eagleswood, are feeling the impact as irrigation systems struggle to maintain crops amidst low surface water and minimal precipitation.
The next drought monitor report, set to be released on July 2nd, will provide an update on these conditions. Interestingly, while the highlands have seen some recovery with recent rains, the coastal areas remain critically dry. This disparity highlights the need for targeted rainfall to alleviate stress on water resources.
June’s precipitation levels reflect a troubling trend, with New Jersey averaging below-normal rainfall for the month. This marks the twenty-third out of the last twenty-six months with below-average precipitation, a situation not seen since the mid-1960s. Dr. Robinson notes that this persistent drought is characterized more by its longevity than by extreme dry spells. In the past two years, New Jersey has seen consistent deficits, with precipitation often falling to about 75% of normal levels.
The coastal counties have been particularly hard hit, receiving only a fraction of the expected rainfall. For instance, Cape May recorded just over two inches for June, compared to the average of nearly four inches. This ongoing drought not only threatens crops but also raises concerns about water availability for residents and wildlife.
As we reflect on the month’s weather, it’s also a moment to acknowledge Dr. Dave Robinson, who has been New Jersey’s state climatologist since 1991 (which as long as Joe Martucci’s been alive). As he prepares for retirement, he shares his mixed feelings about leaving a position he has held with pride. Robinson emphasizes the importance of proper timing in transitioning from a career, noting that he looks forward to spending more time with family and pursuing personal interests, including his writing projects.
Dr. Robinson also highlights the importance of understanding climate patterns and their implications for agriculture and water resources in New Jersey. His insights serve as a reminder of the impact weather and climate have on our daily lives and the necessity for ongoing monitoring and research.
With the hot summer months ahead, the potential for heatwaves raises further concerns about drought conditions. New Jersey typically experiences its wettest month in July, but the current forecasts suggest that the areas most in need of rain may continue to face challenges. Robinson urges residents to be proactive in water conservation and to stay informed about local restrictions.
As we move into July, the call for rain is more urgent than ever. The combination of high temperatures and low humidity could exacerbate the already dry conditions, leading to increased fire risks during holiday celebrations like Independence Day. Residents should be mindful of fire safety and follow local guidelines to protect their communities.
June has been a month of mixed emotions and pressing challenges for New Jersey. As we bid farewell to Dr. Robinson, we also prepare for the ongoing struggle against drought. Understanding these weather patterns is crucial for adapting to future climate challenges. For now, we hope for a shift in the weather that brings much-needed rain to our parched state.
What is the current drought status in New Jersey?
As of late June, New Jersey is facing severe drought conditions, particularly in coastal areas.
How does the drought impact local farmers?
Farmers are struggling with low surface water and are relying heavily on irrigation to sustain their crops.
Why is Dr. Dave Robinson stepping down?
Dr. Robinson is retiring to spend more time with family and pursue personal projects.
WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Today’s the warmup day (no pun intended) for what will be our most intense heat in years. 100F+ inland heat is still likely and all-time records are not ruled out either. Hydrate, hydrate, hydrate! I got your forecast.
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Meteorologist Joe Martucci is tracking NOAA’s HeatRisk forecast for Friday across the state, and most of New Jersey is in a Level 4, or extreme, heat risk. The key word here is “rare.” That’s the kind of heat setup expected later this week.
Triple-digit heat is virtually guaranteed on Thursday, July 3, for inland Ocean and Monmouth counties. Inland Cape May and Atlantic counties are also likely to reach 100 degrees. Even on the Fourth of July, triple-digit temperatures remain very possible, with an even higher heat index making it feel hotter.
New Jersey’s all-time record highs at these climate sites range from 102 to 106 degrees. Using NOAA data, Martucci notes that Monmouth County Airport and Millville both have about a coin-flip chance of breaking their all-time record highs on Friday. That means not just tying the record, but breaking it. Atlantic City International Airport has about a 40% chance as well.
It’s not only the daytime heat that stands out. Overnight temperatures could also challenge all-time warm low temperature records. The highest chance appears to be in Lower Township on Friday, with about a 40% chance of breaking the warmest low temperature on record. Monmouth County Airport and Millville have a chance, too.
No matter how you slice it, this is shaping up to be near-historic, and possibly record-breaking, heat heading into the Fourth of July.
Two days of triple-digit heat are on the table, and the overnight warmth will offer little relief.
TUESDAY’S FORECAST | It’s one beautiful, comfortable, sunny day today. Then, we’re going uphill with temperatures and humidity. The heat wave expected Wednesday-Saturday will likely be the most sweltering this decade! I have safety tips and the forecast, here.
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This is a look at our El Niño forecast from Columbia University. You’re looking at all the different computer model runs here, with those lines that kind of peak around September–October–November and then go down as we head toward February–March–April.
Notice that more than half of them are showing that this is going to be a very strong El Niño, which is a 2°C or greater sea surface temperature anomaly in certain parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
But let’s look at the record — that’s 3.0°C — and there are even some model runs forecasting that as well. Either way, a very strong El Niño is certainly within the realm of possibility, and it’s virtually guaranteed that this will at least be a strong El Niño.
El Niño is when you have warmer-than-average water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, from roughly the coast of Peru in South America over to south of the Hawaiian Islands. You see a lot of those reds there in that circle.
In the next couple of months, it actually means fewer hurricanes. If you look at our hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center or Colorado State University, you see fewer hurricanes due to stronger vertical wind shear (changes in wind direction and height) and greater trade winds. The stronger those east-to-west trade winds are, they can churn up the ocean and bring cooler water up to the surface — meaning again, fewer hurricanes.
We take a look at our Jersey Shore temperatures during the winter based on El Niño strength. Here’s one thing you notice: when you get to the strong and especially very strong categories, our temperatures get milder. There is a clear trend that as you move toward a stronger/very strong El Niño, you have a mild winter — particularly in the very strong case.
We look at the snowfall anomaly (snow compared to average) at Atlantic City International Airport, which averages 17.4 inches. There’s a clear trend for a moderate El Niño to have a much snowier winter. But look at the very strong category — it’s kind of around the average.
This is where we have to dive in a little bit further. Even though a very strong El Niño shows about average snowfall, it’s really varied. The graphic here shows the average snowfall in that white shaded box for ACY Airport and in Long Branch (pretty much the Jersey Shore). We saw back in 2015–16 above-average snowfall, but 1972–73 as well as 1997–98 saw next to nothing.
So while generally I do believe that a very strong El Niño trends toward a less snowy than average winter, there are exceptions to this — and in some cases, pretty significant snowy exceptions like we saw in 2015–16.
In the short term, there’s not much to worry about. We’re going to have a less active than usual hurricane season — that’s good news. It doesn’t really have too much of an impact on our summer temperatures or precipitation.
However, as we go into the winter, we’re going to have to pay close attention to what strength of El Niño we end up with.Quick Recap:
A very strong El Niño means a much milder than average winter, but has mixed results as to how snowy our winter could be here in New Jersey.
A strong El Niño means a slightly milder than average winter and well below average snowfall.
☁️Gloomy and gray, but not as wet as you think today.
🌦️ Showery, for some, Sunday PM
⚠️ 100F heat near the 4th
Come visit Headley Family Farm at 120 Province Road in West Creek! It’s where farming the pines meets the Jersey Shore. Get your Jersey Fresh produce here. Open weekends and some weekdays. Call us at 609-848-3763 or follow us on Facebook, too!
FRIDAY’S FORECAST | I’ll tell you how wet I see this weekend being! Honestly, it has more bark than bite. Sure it’ll be gloomy and gray but it won’t be a straight up soaker. Let’s talk about it.
Stream our 24×7 Jersey Shore Weather Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcPpb_VycOM
Jolt your brand with the Shore’s top weather media company. Advertise today! joe@cupajoe.live