Drought continues for the sixth month in a row in New Jersey, according to the state’s Department of Environmental Protection. Now, though, other indicators are showing warning signs of a crippling drought, too.
Believe it or not, April was in the top 10 for warmest Aprils since records started in 1895. That’s true even though April 21 brought a killing freeze to most of New Jersey only seen once or twice a decade.
Recap the month of weather that was. It’s all Jersey, with two of Jersey’s best weather guys. New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson as well as Meteorologist Joe Martucci, owner of Cup A Joe Weather and Drone, take you through it all.
When I talk about this in my weather videos, or post about it on social media, some variation of the same question comes up.
“How could the Jersey Shore be in drought? We had so much snow last winter.”
While yes, we did have well-above-average snowfall (26.1 inches at Atlantic City International Airport, 18.6 inches in Margate, and 39.2 inches in Long Branch), but lots of snow doesn’t necessarily cure a drought. The correlation is pretty weak.
Drought is defined as “a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance,” according to the American Meteorological Society. In other words, if the water going into the environment is less than the water being taken out of the environment (by humans, animals, evaporation, etc.) for a long period of time, you go into drought.
Water comes into the environment by precipitation. Snow is precipitation, so is rain. However, on average in New Jersey, it takes 11 inches of snow to get 1 inch of precipitation. Meanwhile, 1 inch of rain equals 1 inch of precipitation.
Snow to liquid ratio climatology. On average for New Jersey, it takes 10 to 11 inches of snow to produce one inch of precipitation. (via the National Weather Service)
Here’s a look at how much snow, precipitation and average precipitation fell at Atlantic City International Airport from December to February:
In December, there were 2.2 inches of snow, 3.03 inches of precipitation, vs. 3.76 inches of average precipitation.
January saw 6.7 inches of snow, 3.78 inches of precipitation, vs. 3.44 inches of average precipitation.
February recorded 17.2 inches of snow, 3.53 inches of precipitation, vs. 3.12 inches of average precipitation.
Snowfall was about 75% above average during this time. Precipitation was about 5% below average.
What about the snowpack?
This winter probably felt extra long because the snow was on the ground for so long. Twenty-nine days had at least 1 inch of snow covering the ground at Atlantic City International Airport, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the sixth longest since records began in 1945.
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Snow on the ground helps prevent drought from worsening. It allows for snow to slowly melt and seep into the ground. It also prevents the sun from pulling water from the ground and evaporating into the atmosphere.
However, the snowpack wasn’t deep enough nor did it hang around long enough to have a significant impact on the drought.
All things considered, it was a lack of precipitation in March that slid the Jersey Shore into a deeper drought.
Drought outlook for NJ
NOAA is forecasting that drought conditions will persist through the end of July, according to its April 30 update.
Precipitation across the Jersey Shore, not just in a town or two, needs to average at least 5 inches during this time in order to drown out the drought. More than 4 inches of evaporation occurs during June and July.
We’ll need a few coastal storms, or a very gloomy next month or two, in order to do that. If not, don’t be surprised to see mandatory water restrictions by the end of the summer.
After 3 straight months with colder than average temperatures, March winds up not just warm, but in the top 20 warmest going back to 1895! One thing that didn’t change was precipitation. The Jersey Shore wound up much drier than average and NJ State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson is concerned about wildfire season.
Recap the month of weather that was. It’s all Jersey, with two of Jersey’s best weather guys. New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson as well as Meteorologist Joe Martucci, owner of Cup A Joe Weather and Drone take you through the temperatures, rain, snow, coastal flooding and much more every episode.
New episodes come out the beginning of every month.
📹WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Temperatures are more like the day after Christmas than the day after St. Patrick’s Day. Such is life in spring. Let’s find the real spring weather here!
If your personal forecast feels uncertain this winter, support is available. See You Through It Counseling offers in-person and virtual therapy for children, adults, and couples. Invest in healing that lasts. Visit seeyouthroughitcounseling.com or call 856-335-1352.
Join us as we review the intense winter weather in New Jersey, including record snowfalls, blizzards, and drought conditions, with State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson. Discover the details behind the storms, snowpack, and what to expect in the coming months.
00:00 Introduction to February Weather Roundup 02:00 The February Nor’easter: Impact and Analysis 12:05 Snowpack and Its Effects on Weather Patterns 17:00 Winter Overview: Cold and Snowy Trends 22:55 Drought Conditions and Future Predictions 24:30 It was cold this winter, but…
Recap the month of weather that was. It’s all Jersey, with two of Jersey’s best weather guys. New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson as well as Meteorologist Joe Martucci, owner of Cup A Joe Weather and Drone take you through the temperatures, rain, snow, coastal flooding and much more every episode. New episodes come out the beginning of every month.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE | Yes, rain’s holding on longer than I thought but we’re flipping over to snow from north to south as you read this. We’re still on pace for over 12″ of snow for most of NJ.
Also, the tidal flooding forecast has gone UP. This now looks to be similar tides tonight to what we had during Hurricane Erin last August.
Here’s my first rule – climate change is not a religion. You don’t believe in it or not. It’s happening and humans are the cause of it. Whether that’s great for us, bad for us, is not for me to say. That’s where your beliefs come in.
Now, onto the data.
Our long cold snap from the last week of January to Valentine’s Day only broke ONE cold temperature record at both ACY and Atlantic City, our main weather reporting stations. In other words, we’ve had this cold before.
What about the length of it? ACY and AC went 7 days with temperatures under 32F. That’s good for 10th all time at ACY Airport (records back to 1943) and 16th all time in Atlantic City (records back to 1873).
In other words, it’s been colder, for longer several times before.
And those several times before are generally a long time ago.
At ACY Airport 7 of the 9 longer sub-freezing streaks happened before 1980.
In Atlantic City, 13 of the 15 longer sub-freezing streaks happened before 1980.
Climate change doesn’t mean “it’ll never be cold again”. It’s just that it needs to be more unusually cold to produce the same cold as before.
On the opposite end, we can break heat records with less impressive heat. Record warm outpaces record cold more than 3x over in the past 15 years.
I love cold and snow more than most people. I’m not saying how to feel about climate change or not. You are all great and many of us understand that facts/forecasts is not the same as the politics of it.
📹WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Break out the shorts, break out the flip flops, it’s our warmest day in weeks at the Jersey Shore!
(OK, it’s not that warm but it’ll feel nice out).
If your personal forecast feels uncertain this winter, support is available. See You Through It Counseling offers in-person and virtual therapy for children, adults, and couples. Invest in healing that lasts. Visit seeyouthroughitcounseling.com or call 856-335-1352.
With temperatures much colder than average around here, the depths of winter have been feeling more like New England than the Jersey Shore.
From Jan. 18 to 31, temperatures at Atlantic City International Airport were what the same typical two-week period would be in Portland, Maine, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center. From Jan. 25 to 31, the mean temperature at Atlantic City International Airport was just 18.6 degrees. You’d have to travel far north to find similar readings. Anchorage, Alaska, is the closest match. The same is true at the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina.
Days of sub-freezing temperatures and nights with sub-zero windchills are certainly bitterly cold. However, you don’t have to look that far back to find Januarys just like it.
Believe it or not, January 2026 was milder than last January at both the airport and the marina, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
At Atlantic City International Airport, the average temperature for January was 30.8 in 2026, compared to 30.6 during the same period in 2025. Both readings fall a little below the mean of 33.0. At the Atlantic City Marina, the average was 32.7 in 2026, up from 32.1 in 2025, but still below the 34.5 mean. Even up the Jersey Shore at Long Branch, Monmouth County, 2025’s January was just 0.7 degrees milder.
In other words, January 2025 was colder. However, I hear you, 2026 just felt more frigid.
Maybe it’s because of the snow. Last January experienced a South Jersey Snow Special on Jan. 6. Six to 10 inches of snow fell in Lower Cape May County, with a plowable snow south of the Atlantic City Expressway. However, it was gone a week later. Meanwhile, our winter smorgasbord from Jan. 25 to 26 continues to be an icy glacier more than 10 days later.
A snow covered Mid-Atlantic from Feb. 2, 2026 on the visible satellite image. Note the green area in eastern New Jersey. That’s the dense forest of the Pine Barrens. There was still snow on the ground there. (College of DuPage)Snow and sleet totals from the Jan. 25, 2026 Winter Storm (Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist)
Maybe it’s because, compared to average, New Jersey is among the coldest places in the United States this winter, according to Ben Noll of the Washington Post.
Maybe it’s because our coldest days were colder. Five days were 15 or more degrees below average at ACY Airport this year. Last year, there were three. It was nearly the same in Atlantic City.
Otherwise, maybe it’s just because we remember only what happened to us lately. Last January had more days with gusts over 45 mph, according to NOAA, compared to this January.
Bay ice concentration in the Mid-Atlantic last January, at its peak (48.72%), was double what it was at its peak this January on Jan. 29 (20.5%).
Compared to the rest of recorded history, this January was just a little colder than average. In our climate-changing world, it’s been harder to achieve long stretches of bitterly cold temperatures.
Last month, the only cold temperature records that occurred within our four, long-standing Jersey Shore weather stations (Lower Township, Atlantic City International Airport, Atlantic City Marina and Long Branch) were:
Atlantic City Marina tied a record cold maximum temperature of 22 degrees on Jan. 30. Long Branch broke the cold maximum temperature record with 18 degrees on Jan. 31.
That’s not much. New Jersey had the 39th coldest January of 132 years of record keeping, Dave Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist said on my Monthly Weather Roundup show. The coastal zone, which is generally anywhere east of the Garden State Parkway, was the 41st coldest.
December and January are as cold as the 1960s at Atlantic City Marina. ACY Airport was like an average one in the 1980s.
The climate is changing at a rate not seen since the end of the Paleozoic period 250 million years ago, according to research reported in Science magazine.
Looking ahead, February looks like it will be a colder-than-average month. That would be our first meteorological winter (December-February) colder than the long-term average in quite some time. However, if you’re done with the cold, keep in mind that the days are getting longer and it’s a little light past 6 p.m. now.
The more bitterly cold time of the year is behind us. Warmer days are on the way.
The Monthly Weather Roundup focused on January’s weather patterns, particularly the significant snowstorm and persistent cold.
Dave Robinson, New Jersey State Climatologist, discussed the January 25th storm, which brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the state, with snowfall totals ranging from 8 to 12 inches in Monmouth County.
He noted that while the storm was impactful, it could have been more severe if not for the cold air that limited snow accumulation.
The cold weather dominated the latter part of January, with Dave explaining that while it was cold enough for ice skating and cross-country skiing, it wasn’t record-breaking.
He emphasized that despite the recent cold spell, New Jersey has been warming over time, with the coldest days becoming less extreme.
The discussion also covered the state’s ongoing drought conditions, with January precipitation being below normal, and the impact of snow and ice on water availability.
Recap the month of weather that was. It’s all Jersey, with two of Jersey’s best weather guys. New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson as well as Meteorologist Joe Martucci, owner of Cup A Joe Weather and Drone take you through the temperatures, rain, snow, coastal flooding and much more.
New episodes come out around the beginning of every month.
The Monthly Weather Roundup is sponsored by Jennifer Ansbach Coaching — helping students and adult learners Write. Revise. Rise. Learn more at JenniferAnsbach.com.
