🥳SATURDAY’S FORECAST | Good morning! This is our only 100% dry day this holiday weekend. Enjoy it. We got a windy soaker of a day Sunday and a tornado is not ruled out.
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NJPBS new news broadcast is here and they interviewed Meteorologist Joe Martucci about the upcoming storm on Sunday (10/11/2026) for New Jersey.
The remnants of Isaias will pass through Sunday into early Monday. Heavy rain, gusty winds and minor stage tidal flooding will be likely.
NJPBS relaunched on Oct. 1 from Montclair State University. Rob Nelson is the anchor of the show. Yuli Delgado was the one who booked Joe and Parker Swift was the director!
The Jersey Shore did not need a hurricane to face a crisis. September’s nor’easter put streets underwater, brought wind gusts up to 74 mph and tore away beach sand—all before the heart of our fall and winter storm season.
For much of the coast from Sea Bright to Cape May, Saturday morning brought the highest tide in at least a decade. Belmar was the exception. Tuckerton reached its second-highest recorded tide. Atlantic City reached its 12th-highest in a record dating to 1911.
I was in Highlands, one of our ShorelySafe communities, as major flooding covered streets with up to two feet of water. People had moved their cars to safer ground and listened to our warnings. Those steps mattered.
The wind was fierce, too. Surf City recorded a 74 mph gust. Island Beach State Park reached 70 mph. Neptune City received more than eight inches of rain.
This storm fell short of Sandy’s flooding in many places. Yet water levels matched or topped Winter Storm Jonas in parts of the Shore. Cape May was an exception, where Jonas remained higher.
The concern now reaches beyond flooded streets. Ten beaches had major erosion, according to my storm review. Waves cut steep sand cliffs and left beaches narrower.
That damage leaves less beach between the ocean and our communities as more storms approach. This was a hard lesson: a storm’s name does not tell us how dangerous it will be at the Shore.
This storm’s danger came from a stalled weather pattern. Blocking high pressure over Canada and an upper-level low over the Mid-Atlantic slowed its escape. The pressure gradient between the northern high and coastal low supported persistent onshore winds. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center highlighted this setup before the storm.
Those winds pushed Atlantic water toward New Jersey, producing storm surge above the predicted astronomical tide. Water levels were already elevated from earlier onshore flow. The storm then overlapped with higher tides around the full moon. Rutgers’ preliminary analysis counted 12 flooding high-tide cycles at Atlantic City and Cape May, and 10 at Sandy Hook.
For Shore communities, elevated coastal water also creates a drainage problem. High receiving-water levels can restrict stormwater outfalls. Rain then has fewer places to go, adding another flood mechanism to the tidal threat. This helps explain why rainfall can worsen coastal flooding without causing widespread inland flash flooding.
The storm’s eye-like clearing was consistent with a possible warm seclusion: warmer air becoming trapped near the low’s center. Such features occur in strong extratropical storms. Satellite appearance alone does not establish that a storm has become a hurricane.
😎FRIDAY’S FORECAST | The good times roll… for now. The remnants of hurricane Isaias will run through the Jersey Shore Sunday into Monday. Here’s what to know.
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If it feels like rain keeps finding our weekends, the numbers help explain why. July 25–26 was the most recent confirmed weekend with no measurable precipitation at every station in our New Jersey analysis.
Through October 8, only seven of this year’s 40 completed weekends met that mark across eight stations statewide. That’s 17.5%. This holiday weekend will bring that percentage down, too, as the remnants of Isaias push through Sunday.
The Jersey Shore did somewhat better. Across the three stations checked, 10 weekends had no measurable precipitation on both Saturday and Sunday. That’s 25%, or one in four weekends. The Shore’s most recent qualifying weekend was also July 25–26.
That does not mean every other weekend was a washout. A brief shower at just one station on either day was enough to keep a weekend off the dry list. Other places could have stayed dry, and much of the weekend could still have been great for outdoor plans.
We allowed trace precipitation, meaning amounts too small to measure. Missing readings were not treated as zero. These totals describe the stations checked, rather than every neighborhood, and include precipitation from winter weather as well as rain.
THURSDAY’S FORECAST | My oh my. What an awesome day you’re in for with this Jersey Shore weather! We’ll keep the good times rolling through Sunday. After that, the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will run on through.
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LISTEN TO THE FULL AUDIO EPISODE HERE
The late September 2026 nor’easter brought the Jersey Shore a problem that lasted far beyond one high tide: flooding that returned again and again, while rough surf wore away beaches.
On Tidal Flooding Talk, brought to you by the New Jersey Coastal Coalition, Joe Martucci, Palma Shiles and Dan Skeldon explained why the water stayed high, what homeowners can learn and how misleading storm videos complicate public warnings.
According to Martucci’s episode recap, southern Barnegat Bay experienced 12 consecutive high tides with flooding — roughly six straight days. The Ocean City area had 10, while much of the remaining shore experienced six to eight.
The storm’s slow movement helped keep water pushed toward the coast. Skeldon explained that winds blowing from the ocean toward land had already raised water levels before the storm developed. The storm then strengthened that pattern.
That meant each incoming tide arrived before conditions had fully recovered.
Rain added another problem in parts of Monmouth County. Martucci explained that high coastal water levels limited drainage, while heavy rain added water to already flooded areas. Together, those conditions made flooding worse.
The lesson: coastal flooding depends on more than rainfall. Wind direction, storm movement and repeated high tides all matter.
Shiles said the storm showed the value of lifting air conditioners and other mechanical equipment above floodwater.
“It’s not always just a hurricane that brings major flooding,” she said.
September also created a preparation challenge. Some seasonal residents had already left, while outdoor furniture and other summer items remained unsecured.
Drivers added another concern. Vehicles traveling through flooded streets create waves, or wakes, that can push water toward nearby homes.
“For someone that wasn’t gonna flood on their first floor, now you just pushed all that water right to their door,” Shiles said.
A vehicle’s ability to get through a flooded street does not mean the trip is harmless to neighbors.
Skeldon pointed to beach erosion as a lasting impact. Days of pounding surf removed sand before the main nor’easter season.
Martucci also explained why sand lost from a replenished beach does not automatically mean the project failed. That sand provides a buffer between waves and the community behind it. Evaluating its value means considering what the storm might have reached without that protection.
The hosts closed with another storm hazard: misleading images and videos.
Shiles urged viewers to check the source and the date and time of a post. Martucci encouraged people to judge weather sources by the accuracy of their information.
“Judge me based on the information we’re providing,” he said.
The episode’s takeaway is practical: prepare for repeated tides, keep vehicles out of floodwater, and verify storm posts before sharing them.
😎WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Octobrrrr is in full swing! We’re starting in the mid-30s. Temperatures rebound though. I even spy a good beach day Thursday! The remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias WILL swing through NJ over part of the holiday weekend
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A strong El Niño will shape New Jersey’s winter, but that doesn’t give us a simple answer about snow.
I spoke with Dr. John Krasting, New Jersey State Climatologist, about what this Pacific Ocean weather pattern could mean for the Jersey Shore.
El Niño happens when water in the tropical Pacific stays warmer than usual. That warmth can change the jet stream, the fast-moving air that helps steer storms.
During El Niño winters, a stronger southern jet stream can bring more rain and coastal storms toward New Jersey. However, every El Niño is different. Some winters have been warm and fairly dry, with one major snowstorm standing out.
My research on very strong El Niño events points toward milder winters at the Jersey Shore. That could favor rain over snow during many storms.
Still, a mild winter can deliver a big snowfall. We would need cold air and the right storm track to come together.
High pressure to our north could also slow storms down. That makes coastal flooding another concern to watch as winter approaches.
TUESDAY’S FORECAST | The next time rain is in the forecast is Sunday, if not Monday! We could use the break. Temperatures bounce between sweater weather and Locals’ summer. That includes one day where frost is possible.
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