THURSDAY’S FORECAST | Flash flooding. Tornadoes. Wind damage. All three are possible at the Jersey Shore.
This is a severe weather risk where most of you will still be OK. However, some will not and that’s why I’m here.
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When coastal communities think about flooding, attention naturally turns to tides, storm surge, sea-level rise, and the next nor’easter or hurricane. But another process unfolding offshore deserves a place in the coastal conversation: marine heat waves.
Marine heat waves occur when ocean temperatures remain unusually warm for an extended period. Oceanographer Mari Bif, an associate professor at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, explained on Tidal Flooding Talk that these events can persist for weeks, months, or even years. Unlike land, the ocean warms and cools slowly, meaning a relatively small temperature anomaly can represent a substantial amount of stored heat.
That persistence matters.
One of the best-known examples was the North Pacific “Blob,” which lasted from roughly 2013 to 2015. According to Bif, that event disrupted marine ecosystems, contributed to harmful algal blooms, shifted fisheries, reduced ocean oxygen, and was associated with widespread seabird mortality. A second major event followed from 2019 to 2020. These impacts demonstrate that unusually warm water is not simply an interesting temperature statistic—it can reorganize coastal and marine systems.
Scientists are getting much better at observing these changes. Ocean monitoring now combines fixed moorings, satellites, and autonomous Argo floats that drift through the ocean while collecting temperature, salinity, and other measurements. Some floats profile water to depths of 2,000 meters, with newer systems reaching approximately 4,000 meters. Biogeochemical floats can also measure properties such as nutrients, particles, pH, and indicators of phytoplankton activity.
For coastal flood practitioners, the important lesson is that coastal risk does not begin at the shoreline.
The relationship between a particular marine heat wave and tidal flooding is not necessarily direct. Bif cautioned against drawing a simple line between a warm patch of ocean and increased coastal flooding or sea-level rise. Yet the broader ocean-atmosphere system is deeply connected. Marine heat waves can interact with large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño, while ocean temperatures influence ecosystems, atmospheric conditions, and the overall climate system.
That makes marine heat waves another reason coastal resilience needs to be multidisciplinary.
Tide gauges and flood maps remain essential, but understanding future coastal conditions also requires looking offshore, downward through the water column, and across entire ocean basins. The better we understand how heat moves through the ocean—and how the ocean responds—the better prepared coastal communities can be for the changing conditions arriving at their doorstep.
Experience Tidal Flooding Talk every Tuesday night, America’s leading show on coastal flooding resilience. Hosted by the New Jersey Coastal Coalition, which formed after Superstorm Sandy in 2012, it empowers leaders with dynamic workshops. Visit njcoastalcoalition.com to learn more!
☁️TUESDAY’S FORECAST | I’m back and I brought the Caribbean humidity with me… Don’t worry, dew points slide down Wednesday. All in all, the next 7 days gives us a little of everything.
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SATURDAY DAILY FORECAST I AN unfortunate change in the forecast today has put the southern part of the coast under a short-notice risk of rain. Sunday afternoon looks to be a total washout with a slight flash flooding risk. Meteorologist Derek Diehl has the details.
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Did you hear the thunder last night? If not, you’ll have another chance Friday before a beautiful weekend is on tap. Meteorologist Derek Diehl has the details.
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🌴FRIDAY’S FORECAST | Heat, humidity and storms (not a washout, keep your plans). Thank the Bermuda high for that! I got your Jersey Shore forecast.
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♨️THURSDAY’S FORECAST | Woah. It is muuuugggggyy out there. That’s why a heat alert is out for parts of the Jersey Shore through Saturday! Stay cool, stay in the water and watch for the spotty lightning storms.
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WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Humid. Muggy. Swampy. Sticky! Call it whatever you want but this will be our most humid stretch of 2026 so far. With the humidity comes the storms but it won’t be a washout.
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Oceanside, California, is taking an international approach to a problem Jersey Shore communities know all too well: disappearing beaches.
During a recent episode of Tidal Flooding Talk, Oceanside Coastal Program Manager Jayme Timberlake explained how the city’s proposed ReBeach project could rebuild its shoreline while offering a new model for coastal resilience.
Oceanside’s erosion problems date back decades. The construction of a federal boat basin and a small-craft harbor during the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s changed the natural movement of sand along the city’s coastline. The result has been an ongoing cycle of healthy beaches followed by dramatic sand loss.
Today, some locations have little more than wet sand and cobble, with usable beach available only at low tide.
“The sand leaves our shoreline really fast,” Timberlake said.
Past beach-nourishment projects brought new sand to Oceanside, but much of it disappeared within several years. Instead of simply repeating that process, city leaders began searching for a way to keep more sand in place.
That search became ReBeach.
Oceanside launched an international design competition that attracted more than 30 companies. Teams eventually joined forces, producing three finalists from New York, the Netherlands and Australia.
The winning concept combines traditional sand nourishment with artificial reefs and headlands. The underwater and shoreline features are intended to slow sand loss, restore wider beaches and create a protective buffer between the Pacific Ocean and nearby development.
The project could also improve surfing. Oceanside is home to major competitions and world-title-winning surfer Caitlin Simmers, but erosion has removed some of the offshore sandbars that help waves break. ReBeach is expected to add enough sand to help those features return.
For residents, the loss is about more than recreation. Timberlake said some people left Oceanside for college or military service and returned to find the beaches they remembered had nearly vanished. That rapid change has helped generate strong public support, including the creation of Save Oceanside Sand, a nonprofit advocacy group with roughly 1,200 paying members.
Getting ReBeach built will require another major lift. The project is expected to cost approximately $60 million. Oceanside has used its general fund and federal American Rescue Plan Act money to advance the design and permitting process, but construction funding has not yet been secured.
The city is exploring several possibilities, including state grants, local sales-tax revenue and a potential federal earmark through NOAA.
Although ReBeach would be new to California, its Australian design team has used similar artificial-reef strategies elsewhere. If the Oceanside project succeeds, it could provide a blueprint for other developed coastal communities searching for ways to hold onto their sand—and their identity.