September gave New Jersey a warm start, a welcome break from drought and a coastal storm that kept coming back for more.
In our monthly weather roundup, I joined Dr. John Krasting, New Jersey State Climatologist, to unpack a month that went from beach weather to flooded streets. We also looked at what a powerful El Niño could mean for the months ahead.
A nor’easter that wouldn’t quit
The September nor’easter’s biggest story wasn’t just how high the water rose. It was how long the flooding lasted.
Dr. Krasting reported 12 high tide cycles with at least minor flooding at Atlantic City and Cape May during the September 22–30 period. Those were flooding tides across that stretch, rather than 12 straight flooded high tides.
He said that kind of repeated flooding hadn’t been seen there since the December 1992 nor’easter.
I saw the impacts firsthand in Highlands on Saturday morning. In the lower part of town, floodwater reached several blocks inland. Water spilled over the bulkhead and rose above my knee-high boots.
Strong winds pushed water toward shore for days. High tides and heavy rain added to the trouble. Dr. Krasting explained that when several sources of flooding overlap, the impacts become harder to measure and compare.
The wind was fierce, too. Surf City recorded a peak gust of 74 mph, while Harvey Cedars reached 69 mph.
Although the storm’s turn toward New Jersey brought comparisons to Sandy, Dr. Krasting stressed that Sandy was a much larger storm. Similar tracks do not mean similar impacts.
Rain brought some good news
September’s rain also helped ease New Jersey’s long drought.
Preliminary statewide rainfall totaled 6.16 inches, about two inches above normal. If those numbers hold, September would rank as the state’s 17th wettest.
It also marked the third straight month with above-average rainfall.
Dr. Krasting reported that New Jersey had left drought status on the U.S. Drought Monitor, though some areas remained abnormally dry. The state’s drought warning had also been lifted.
Still, water underground remained low in parts of the coastal region. Recovery takes time, even after several wet months.
Warm nights stood out
September’s preliminary statewide average temperature was 68.2 degrees, about 1.3 degrees above normal.
The warm nights were especially notable. Some locations stayed in the mid-70s overnight early in the month. Before the nor’easter arrived, much of September offered the warm weather many Shore residents call “local summer.”
What about winter?
Our discussion also covered a strong El Niño, a pattern involving unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific.
Dr. Krasting explained that it can strengthen a major storm track, potentially bringing more coastal storms and precipitation.
That does not guarantee a snowy winter. Temperatures and the timing of cold air still matter.
After September’s repeated flooding, the question heading into winter is whether future storms will bring those same ingredients together again.
