A storm is likely to imapct New Jersey from Thursday afternoon, Nov. 12, through Saturday morning, Nov. 14, bringing rain, wind and a tidal flooding threat. However, any snow will be sNOw big deal.
Your biggest concern will depend on where the storm travels. At this point, two tracks could lead to different problems along the coast and across the state.
If you live near the ocean or a bay, the coastal track deserves your attention. That setup could keep stronger winds blowing toward land for longer, raising water levels. You could face moderate tidal flooding, with flooded roads and possible property damage in vulnerable areas.
You should treat that as a possible outcome, rather than a settled forecast. The timing and height of each high tide still need to come into focus.
Under this coastal scenario, expect roughly 1 to 2 inches of rain spread over about 30 hours. That would generally be easier to handle than the same amount falling quickly, though local drainage problems remain possible.
If the storm tracks inland, your concern could shift toward heavier rain. One scenario brings a soaking Thursday night, a break, then another round late Friday into early Saturday. You would likely have less prolonged onshore wind, reducing the tidal threat compared with the coastal setup.
Away from the Shore, you should watch how those rain bands develop, especially if your neighborhood floods during downpours. Your wind forecast also remains uncertain; specific gust predictions would be premature.
And if you’re hoping for snow? Your best chance would be in northwestern New Jersey, where some accumulation is possible. However, mid-November is about the time of your first accumulating snow there.
At the Shore, rain remains the main story. Even if you see a few snowflakes early Saturday, it won’t accumulate.
For now, keep your outdoor plans flexible and follow updates as the track becomes clearer. Your forecast should gain detail early this week, including the rain totals, wind strength and high tides most likely to cause trouble.
Know more
The upper air pattern shows a polar jet stream and sub-tropical jet stream interact. Their timing and alignment will influence the storm’s development and eventual track. However, the signal is there for a storm (expect more of this in our very strong El Nino winter).
For your coastal flooding assessment, you need more than a low pressure center on a map. Onshore winds drive water toward the coast. Wind strength, duration and the timing relative to astronomical high tide help determine your local impact.
Our ShorelySafe communities will see how deep the water will be in their towns, at 15-minutes intervals, 84-hours out. This means on Monday morning, tidal flooding for Thursday evening, if it happens, will be visible. Our weather-driven Floodmapper, America’s best-in-class, shows that.
For snow, you need to inspect the full temperature profile alongside precipitation timing. The 925 millibar chart, roughly 2,500 feet high, samples a pressure surface aloft, whose height varies with atmospheric conditions. You cannot use its freezing line alone to determine whether snow will reach your driveway.
You should also watch cooling from rising air, evaporation and melting snowflakes. These processes can tip a borderline setup toward snow. But you still need precipitation while the column is cold enough. In the scenario discussed here, that overlap is limited, keeping your coastal snow prospects low.
