The Jersey Shore is reaching a noticeable seasonal milestone Thursday evening as daylight continues its rapid September decline.
September 17 marks the final sunset at or after 7 p.m. for the beaches of Monmouth and Ocean counties. Just one month ago, there was still plenty of daylight at 7 p.m. By mid-October, it will already be dark by that time.
Atlantic and Cape May counties have a little more time. Their final 7 p.m. sunsets will arrive this weekend.
The quickly changing sunset times are part of the Jersey Shore’s fastest loss of daylight of the year. Around the September equinox, the region loses more than 2.5 minutes of daylight each day.
It’s not just the amount of daylight that is changing. The sun itself is also noticeably lower in the sky.
On September 17, the sun’s peak angle over the Jersey Shore is about 21 degrees lower than it was on the summer solstice in June. That lower sun angle means less direct sunlight, longer shadows and earlier sunsets.
And with leaves beginning to change, the signs of fall are becoming harder to miss.
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Tides aren’t just an Earth phenomenon—they can exist across the universe. Some exoplanets orbit so close to their stars that tidal forces could be extreme, with tides potentially 10 to 100 times larger than Earth’s. Imagine the ocean tides we know, amplified to an almost unimaginable scale.
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NOTE: This story was originally published on April 4. It was updated on Sept. 16 to account for the “super” El Nino declared by NOAA.
Goodbye La Niña and hello El Niño – a “super” El Niño.
A “super” or very strong El Nino became official on Sept. 14, 2026 per NOAA’s update. This shift in the Earth’s long-term weather patterns will define how we experience the upcoming hurricane season, as well as the snow and cold of next winter.
Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration give El Niño a greater-than-60% chance of developing during the summer. By the fall, during the peak of hurricane season, it’s an 80% chance.
By July, the chances of an El Nino developing are over 50% (via NOAA)
El Niño or La Niña is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This refers to the water temperatures off the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, from roughly Peru westward 7,000 miles. When water temperatures are warmer than average, it’s El Niño. When it’s cooler than average, it’s La Niña.
Via NOAA
Meteorologists break this down into four different zones within the ENSO region. I won’t explain it much here, but where those warmer temperatures are this summer and beyond will make a slight difference in what our long-term forecast will be.
Since the summer of 2024, we have been in La Niña. That typically means milder winters. However, both the 2024-2025 winter, and this past winter, were colder than average.
The frozen tundra of snow and ice we experienced for weeks this past winter bucked the La Niña trend, too. For hurricane season, 2024 was more active than usual, while 2025 was about average. That checks out with a La Niña pattern.
Let’s look at what El Niño will mean for both the 2026 hurricane season, and the 2026-2027 winter, plus what a “super” El Niño could mean for New Jersey.
Quieter hurricane season likely
When El Niño is present, hurricane activity in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin goes down; it’s that simple. The Atlantic Hurricane Basin averages 14 named storms – seven hurricanes including three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) per season, per Colorado State University. Since 1990, there have been 11 hurricane seasons with El Niño. Seven were less active, while two were about average and two were more active.
More than likely, this hurricane season will be as active or less active than average. With a 24% chance of the eye of a tropical storm or hurricane being within 50 miles of the Jersey Shore, that number should be lower as well. Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
During El Niño, there is stronger windshear in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Windshear is a change of wind direction or speed as you go up from the surface. This, in short, rips apart developing cyclones.
Winter temperatures
The stronger the El Niño, the warmer the temperatures. By itself, El Niño doesn’t mean much for our temperatures during the winter. Since ENSO records began in the 1950s, winters with El Niño end up about average at Atlantic City International Airport and the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City.
However, when you look at the intensity of the El Niño, the pattern becomes clear.
Very Strong: 4.0 degrees warmer than average
Strong: 0.5 degrees warmer than average
Moderate: 0.7 degrees colder than average
Weak: 0.5 degrees colder than average.
Mean temperature between December and February for Atlantic City International Airport and Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City, based on the intensity of the El Nino (graphic is from Claude Artificial Intelligence, via NOAA data).
The stronger the El Niño, the warmer the temperatures. That’s because the Pacific jet stream – the river of air about 30,000 feet high that separates two airmasses – pushes into the Northeast. That means more opportunities for us to be south of the jet stream, taking in milder air.
Winter snow: One clear signal
Like winter temperatures, using El Niño alone doesn’t produce a big trend in what snow could look like for a winter. Generally, it’s a little less snowy than average. However, when you look at the type of El Niño, there is a trend that screams off the chart.
When El Niño is in a moderate phase, it’s 13 inches snowier than average. For the South Jersey shore, that’s 25 to 30 inches of snow. Farther up the coast, that’s roughly 30 to 35 inches of snow.
Here’s the snow breakdown for Atlantic City International Airport and Long Branch, by El Niño phase.
Weak: 3.5 inches below average
Moderate: 13.2 inches above average
Strong: 3.4 inches below average
Very strong: 0.2 inches above average
Winter snowfall totals for the Jersey Shore, based on the intensity of the El Nino (graphic is from Claude Artificial Intelligence, via NOAA data)
The last two moderate El Niño winters were 2009-’10 and 2002-’03. Both brought plenty of snow, and winter storms. That included:
On Feb. 5-7, 2010, over 20 inches of snow fell roughly south of the Atlantic City Expressway. Meanwhile, New York City experienced less than 4 inches of snow.
A few days later, the Feb. 9-11 winter storm brought over half a foot of snow to the shore.
The Feb, 16-18, 2003, winter storm, known as the President’s Day II or PDII storm, dropped over 18 inches of snow on much of the Jersey Shore and ranks as the sixth strongest winter storm on NOAA’s Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale.
Moderate El Niños sit in a weather sweet spot for winter storms in New Jersey. They enhance the jet stream’s pattern in a way that funnels nor’easters up the coast without warming the region enough to flip precipitation to rain.
😎TUESDAY’S FORECAST | For the first time in NINE weeks, we have a dry workweek. Some think that means a boring weather video, but not here at the Jersey Shore. There are a few exciting things to talk about!
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FRIDAY’S FORECAST| It’s a somber start to Sept. 11. However, like the American spirit afterwards, it will be bright after these AM showers.
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The 2026 summer weekend weather season at the Jersey Shore had plenty of ups and downs. It started with a major weather setback, improved through the heart of summer, and ended on a much stronger note.
Memorial Day weekend received an F, with rain, chilly temperatures and highs only in the low 60s at times. The weather slowly improved through June and July. The first A came from June 12-15, while the Fourth of July weekend earned a B despite hot, humid and stormy conditions.
The second half of summer was much better. From late July into August, most weekends earned grades in the B range or higher. Overall, the summer finished with three A’s, four B+’s, six B’s, one C+, one C and the Memorial Day F.
Labor Day weekend provided the strong finish the summer needed. Saturday and Monday earned A’s, while Friday and Sunday received B+ grades. That gave Labor Day weekend a 3.75 GPA, or an A.
After all of that, the 2026 summer finished with a 3.0 GPA, tying 2021. The best year remains 2019, which finished with a 3.4 GPA.
🥵THURSDAY’S FORECAST | Summertime heat and humidity for today! This typically only happens only once or twice after Labor Day.
Rain? Ehh. It’s mostly dry this week and through the weekend.
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