TUESDAY’S FORECAST | It’s one beautiful, comfortable, sunny day today. Then, we’re going uphill with temperatures and humidity. The heat wave expected Wednesday-Saturday will likely be the most sweltering this decade! I have safety tips and the forecast, here.
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This is a look at our El Niño forecast from Columbia University. You’re looking at all the different computer model runs here, with those lines that kind of peak around September–October–November and then go down as we head toward February–March–April.
Notice that more than half of them are showing that this is going to be a very strong El Niño, which is a 2°C or greater sea surface temperature anomaly in certain parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
But let’s look at the record — that’s 3.0°C — and there are even some model runs forecasting that as well. Either way, a very strong El Niño is certainly within the realm of possibility, and it’s virtually guaranteed that this will at least be a strong El Niño.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is when you have warmer-than-average water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, from roughly the coast of Peru in South America over to south of the Hawaiian Islands. You see a lot of those reds there in that circle.
How Does That Impact Our Weather?
In the next couple of months, it actually means fewer hurricanes. If you look at our hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center or Colorado State University, you see fewer hurricanes due to stronger vertical wind shear (changes in wind direction and height) and greater trade winds. The stronger those east-to-west trade winds are, they can churn up the ocean and bring cooler water up to the surface — meaning again, fewer hurricanes.
Now, what does this mean for our winter?
We take a look at our Jersey Shore temperatures during the winter based on El Niño strength. Here’s one thing you notice: when you get to the strong and especially very strong categories, our temperatures get milder. There is a clear trend that as you move toward a stronger/very strong El Niño, you have a mild winter — particularly in the very strong case.
What About Snowfall?
We look at the snowfall anomaly (snow compared to average) at Atlantic City International Airport, which averages 17.4 inches. There’s a clear trend for a moderate El Niño to have a much snowier winter. But look at the very strong category — it’s kind of around the average.
This is where we have to dive in a little bit further. Even though a very strong El Niño shows about average snowfall, it’s really varied. The graphic here shows the average snowfall in that white shaded box for ACY Airport and in Long Branch (pretty much the Jersey Shore). We saw back in 2015–16 above-average snowfall, but 1972–73 as well as 1997–98 saw next to nothing.
So while generally I do believe that a very strong El Niño trends toward a less snowy than average winter, there are exceptions to this — and in some cases, pretty significant snowy exceptions like we saw in 2015–16.
Short-Term Outlook
In the short term, there’s not much to worry about. We’re going to have a less active than usual hurricane season — that’s good news. It doesn’t really have too much of an impact on our summer temperatures or precipitation.
However, as we go into the winter, we’re going to have to pay close attention to what strength of El Niño we end up with.Quick Recap:
A very strong El Niño means a much milder than average winter, but has mixed results as to how snowy our winter could be here in New Jersey.
A strong El Niño means a slightly milder than average winter and well below average snowfall.
A strong El Niño means a slightly milder than average winter and well below average snowfall.
A very strong El Niño means a much milder than average winter, but has mixed results as to how snowy our winter could be here in New Jersey.
☁️Gloomy and gray, but not as wet as you think today. 🌦️ Showery, for some, Sunday PM ⚠️ 100F heat near the 4th
Come visit Headley Family Farm at 120 Province Road in West Creek! It’s where farming the pines meets the Jersey Shore. Get your Jersey Fresh produce here. Open weekends and some weekdays. Call us at 609-848-3763 or follow us on Facebook, too!
FRIDAY’S FORECAST | I’ll tell you how wet I see this weekend being! Honestly, it has more bark than bite. Sure it’ll be gloomy and gray but it won’t be a straight up soaker. Let’s talk about it.
📹THURSDAY’S FORECAST | It’s another gloroiously sunny day today! It gets more unsettled for the weekend. However, you will have boat and beach time outside. I’ll tell ya when!
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Norway’s Dagbladet Sporten called me on WhatsApp Monday, 6/22/2026, to interview Meteorologist Joe Martucci on Monday night’s World Cup Match between Norway and Senegal.
“In my opinion, there’s a 20 percent chance of lightning in the area around the stadium,” Martucci said.
As it turns out, lightning did not occur at MetLife Stadium Monday night. Norway went on to win the match 3-2. The team then performed the country’s epic Viking Row.
Weather Forecasts That Last Way Longer Than We Thought Possible
Scientists have long believed that weather forecasts can only be really accurate for about two weeks. After that, tiny mistakes in the starting weather data grow so fast because of chaos (the “butterfly effect”) that the forecast becomes useless. A new study challenges that old rule using an AI weather model.
What They Did
Researchers took a popular AI weather model called GraphCast. This model is special because it can “learn” from data and also figure out how small changes in the starting weather affect the forecast days later.
They didn’t just run normal forecasts. Instead, they tweaked the starting weather picture (called the initial conditions) for every day in 2020 — over 700 forecasts in total. They used math to find the best possible starting point that would make the forecast match what actually happened as closely as possible. They did this step by step, starting with short forecasts and slowly making them longer.
They tested this on a big computer using two levels of precision (like using more decimal places for more accuracy).
What They Found
The results were surprising:At 10 days ahead, the tweaked forecasts had 86% less error than normal forecasts that started from regular weather data. Every single forecast got better — none failed.
The forecasts stayed useful much longer. The weather patterns matched reality well out to about 27–28 days, and some skill lasted past 30 days. The errors grew at a steady rate, but started from a much better place, so they stayed smaller for longer.
They also checked if the AI was just making smoother, less detailed forecasts (which would look better but be less useful). It wasn’t — the improved forecasts kept the right amount of detail and activity.
What the “Tweaks” Looked Like
The changes they made to the starting weather weren’t random or tiny. On average, they showed a clear pattern:They made the big tropical air loop (warm air rising near the equator and sinking farther north and south) stronger than in the normal weather data.
This included:
Making some ocean areas near the tropics a bit cooler or warmer in the right places Adding or removing moisture in patterns that matched real weather systems Changing how air rises and sinks over large areas
These changes were about the same size as normal small errors in weather data. They weren’t crazy or unrealistic.
Testing in a Different AI Model
To make sure this wasn’t just a trick that worked only in one AI model, they took the improved starting points and used them in another AI model called Pangu-Weather.
The other model also got better forecasts — about 21% less error at its best point (around day 4). It wasn’t as big an improvement as in the first model, but it was still clearly better than normal. This shows the better starting points helped in general, but some of the improvement was specific to the first model.
Why This Matters
This study shows that better starting weather data can push accurate forecasts well past the old two-week limit — at least for big weather patterns across the whole planet. It suggests the atmosphere might be more predictable at large scales than we used to think, and that current weather data has some fixable mistakes in big patterns like the tropical air loop.
Important limits
The scientists knew what the weather actually did later (they were looking backward). This isn’t yet possible in real-time forecasts.
It works best for big, continent-sized weather features, not tiny storms or local details.
It took a lot of computer power for each forecast.
Bottom Line
The old idea that weather becomes unpredictable after about two weeks may not be as strict as we thought — at least when we use smart AI tools to find better starting points. This doesn’t mean we’ll have perfect 30-day forecasts tomorrow, but it opens the door to much longer useful forecasts in the future if scientists can figure out how to find these better starting points in real time.
The study is careful and well-tested. It doesn’t claim the atmosphere has no limits — it just shows those limits might be farther out than we believed when we start with smarter data.
WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Sun, sun and more sun! It almost feels like September with the crisp air around. I recap your much needed rainfall totals from the past two days and break down just how wet the weekend will be.
TUESDAY’S FORECAST | More *much-needed* rain falls today, even in Cape May County where the bubble was in full force. Once then clears, we got a 2 day stretch of sunshine. We also have your (very) early 4th of July weekend forecast.
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🌞SATURDAY’S FORECAST | Spectular! Sunstatic! Those are the ways to describe our Fathers’ Day weekend. Enjoy it! A storm does come Monday – Tuesday but I don’t think it’ll do a lot to quell drought.
Come visit Headley Family Farm at 120 Province Road in West Creek! It’s where farming the pines meets the Jersey Shore. Get your Jersey Fresh produce here. Open weekends and some weekdays. Call us at 609-848-3763 or follow us on Facebook, too!
