WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | It’s not extremely hot, it’s not extremely wet, it’s comfortable across the coastal counties! 70s and 80s for highs. Storms return to the forecast Thursday. Will it be OK for the weekend? Tune in!
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The heat that hit the Jersey Shore from July 1 to July 5 was not normal summer heat.
It was rare, dangerous and even deadly.
In New Jersey, 29 people died during the stretch of extreme heat, according to reports. Heat is often the deadliest type of weather in the United States, and this heat wave showed why.
The biggest number came from Atlantic City International Airport. On the Fourth of July, the airport reached 106 degrees. That tied the hottest temperature ever recorded there.
Several daily records were also broken during the heat wave.
On July 2, Millville reached 100 degrees. Atlantic City International Airport hit 103 degrees that same day. More records were broken on July 3 at Atlantic City International Airport, Millville, Atlantic City Marina and Freehold.
Then came July 4, when Atlantic City International Airport tied its all-time record high of 106 degrees.
The nights were also unusually hot.
For three nights in a row, overnight temperatures stayed near record levels. From the night of July 3 into July 4, Atlantic City International Airport never dropped below 80 degrees. That is one of the warmest nights ever recorded there.
The last heat wave close to this one happened in July 2011. That was also when Atlantic City International Airport reached 106 degrees.
When comparing the July 2026 heat wave to the July 2011 heat wave, this one was close, but just below the 2011 stretch. Still, for inland parts of the coastal counties, this was likely the second or third hottest stretch on record going back to the 1940s.
So why did it get so hot?
A strong area of high pressure was sitting over the Mid-South. High pressure spins clockwise. That helped send hot air from the Gulf region into the Midwest and then toward New Jersey.
By Friday and Saturday, winds turned more from the west and northwest. That kept the air a little less humid than usual. Dew points were mostly in the 60s instead of the very sticky 70s.
That drier air helped temperatures climb even higher.
When the air is very humid, it can be harder for temperatures to rise as much. But when the air is dry, the sun can heat the ground more easily. That is why desert cities like Phoenix can reach the 110s, while a humid city like Miami rarely gets above 99 degrees.
Climate change also played a role.
Because of human-caused climate change, this kind of heat from July 2 to July 5 was made about three to five times more likely. That does not mean the heat wave could not have happened without climate change. It means climate change increased the odds.
Think of it like rolling a die. If one side of the die is changed to another six, you can still roll other numbers. But your chances of rolling a six go up.
That is what climate change is doing with extreme heat. It is loading the dice toward hotter weather.
The heat in South Jersey felt more like the desert Southwest. From July 1 to July 5, the average temperature at Atlantic City International Airport was close to what Tucson, Arizona, normally sees during the same time of year.
Along the coast, Atlantic City Marina had temperatures closer to what Honolulu, Hawaii, usually feels in early July.
In other words, New Jersey lived through desert and tropical heat at the same time.
This was not just a hot few days. It was one of the most extreme heat waves on record for the Jersey Shore region.
In this episode, we explore the critical issue of coastal flooding and sea level rise, featuring expert insights from Dr. Wanyun Shao at the University of Alabama. We discuss risk assessment, social vulnerabilities, and practical measures for communities along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.
LISTEN: https://tidalfloodingtalk.riverside.com
Experience Tidal Flooding Talk every Tuesday night, America’s leading show on coastal flooding resilience. Hosted by the New Jersey Coastal Coalition, which formed after Superstorm Sandy in 2012, it empowers leaders with dynamic workshops. Visit njcoastalcoalition.com to learn more!
Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Coastal Challenges 04:15 Understanding Flood Risks in Major Cities 10:33 Social Vulnerability and Flooding 16:50 Public Awareness and Preparedness 22:13 Strategies for Mitigating Flood Risks 27:39 Personal Reflections and Celebrations
Tremendous flooding hit Monmouth County and parts of Ocean County Monday (July 6) after heavy rain moved through the area. This was not tidal flooding. The water came from rain alone.
Photos from across the region showed flooded roads, high water in neighborhoods and dangerous conditions for drivers. One of the most serious reports came from the BJ’s Wholesale Club in Ocean Township, where part of the roof collapsed. Thankfully, no injuries or deaths were reported, but the situation could have been much worse.
The National Weather Service received many flooding reports from the area. There were dozens of water rescues after people drove into water that was too deep for their vehicles. Major roads were also closed in several coastal communities. Jersey Shore University Medical Center in Neptune Township had flooding on the first floor and in the emergency room.
The flooding happened because several thunderstorms moved over the same areas again and again. Meteorologists call this “training.” It is similar to train cars moving over the same track. When storms train over one place, rainfall can pile up quickly.
The heaviest rain fell in coastal Monmouth County, where some areas saw more than 4 inches. Inland Monmouth County and northern Ocean County also saw heavy rain, with many places picking up 3 to 4 inches.
Neptune Township had some of the highest rainfall totals, with more than 4.75 inches reported. Allentown, in western Monmouth County, received about 4.5 inches. Jackson Township in Ocean County also saw more than 4 inches of rain.
At one point in Neptune Township, the amount of rain that fell in 30 minutes and in one hour was considered a 1-in-100-year rainfall event. That means this kind of rainfall has about a 1% chance of happening in any given year. That extreme rain helps explain why Neptune, Ocean Township, Deal and nearby communities saw such serious flooding.
The heavy rain was not spread evenly across New Jersey. While parts of Monmouth, Ocean, Camden and Cumberland counties saw very heavy rain, far southeastern New Jersey saw much less. Atlantic City International Airport picked up only 0.14 inches of rain from Saturday to Tuesday.
That sharp difference shows why this storm was so unusual. Some coastal areas saw almost no rain, while nearby communities dealt with flooding, road closures, water rescues and damage from several inches of rain in a short amount of time.
📹TUESDAY’S FORECAST | Today is recovery day from the flooding that gripped Monmouth and northern Ocean counties. Elsewhere, it’s just a gloomy, damp day. Summer comfort returns later this week. Plus, a look at the tropics.
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Atlantic City International Airport tied it’s all-time record high temperature at 106F on July 4, 2026. The previous 106F was in June, 28 1969.
It goes to the National Weather Service for final approval.
Happy Birthday, America.
July 3 to July 5 is forecast to be the hottest stretch of weather this decade, and Cup A Joe Weather has full coverage to get you informed and safe.
Look for regular updates right here throughout the day Thursday.
Stream our 24×7 Jersey Shore Weather Channel: https://www.youtube.com/live/Gn74OsNF4wQ
1145AM Thursday
The cooling sea breeze is really doing its thing. It’s 76F in Atlantic City and in Harvey Cedars!
Sweltering inland though… A few spots hit 
already 
.
How’re you feeling?
910AM Thursday
Here’s why New Jersey is seeing record breaking heat over the next couple of days.
This satellite image tells the story of why New Jersey is baking under dangerous heat.
First, notice where the clouds are and are not. Across New Jersey, skies are mainly sunny. That sunshine is not an accident. A strong area of high pressure over the Mid-South is keeping rain and clouds away from us.
High pressure systems spin clockwise. You can see that on the satellite image, with clouds wrapping from Texas toward Michigan, then into Maine and down toward Florida. New Jersey is sitting inside the dry, sunny side of that circulation.
Think of the high pressure as stiff-arming the clouds and rain away from the Garden State. With the heat dome overhead, dry air in place, and strong sunshine beating down, the ground heats up even more.
On top of that, winds are coming from the west. During the summer, a west wind can help bring some of our hottest temperatures to the Jersey Shore region.
That combination is why heat warnings are in effect for inland Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May counties, as well as all of Monmouth County. This is life-threatening heat, especially for people without reliable air conditioning, outdoor workers, older adults, young children and anyone with health concerns.
730AM Thursday
🥵THURSDAY’S FORECAST | Our first of 3 days of record threatening heat is today, New Jersey. Stay hydrated, stay in the A/C and stay safe. I’ll tell you where the 4th of July fireworks has the best chance of happening dry, too.
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630AM Thursday
HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE 2020s | We’ve talked about it for days and now it’s here. Brutal, record threatening heat for the next 3 days. This is what we’re up against. Good news? It won’t be *all* that humid.
On June 30, 2026 Dave Robinson, the New Jersey State Climatologist since 1991 and Distinguished Professor at Rutgers University, retired.
Dave Robinson is my birthday buddy (May 13th), research advisor (2013), Monthly Weather Roundup co-host, weather dad and friend.
He is New Jersey climate. In the science world, knowing your stuff and communicating that stuff doesn’t always go hand in hand. He mastered both. He’d just ask quickly do a Zoom call for an interview as he would spit off a list of the top 10 most humid years in New Jersey’s history.
“What I find incredibly inspiring about Dave is that he really was the essence of the office for several decades,” John Krasting, the incoming state climatologist said. “I’m going to be inheriting a wonderful program that has developed over the years into one of the leading state climate offices in the nation.”
My journey with Dr. Robinson began in 2013, during my last semester at Rutgers, when I wanted to do research for credit. The topic was dew point climatology, looking at moisture in the air across different parts of New Jersey.
That report is still somewhere at the State Climate Office, or maybe at Dave’s home. Either way, it became a valuable learning experience. It also gave me the chance to meet Mat Gerbush, the assistant state climatologist, and a young Dan Zarrow, now Chief Meteorologist for NJ 101.5 and Townsquare New Jersey.
After I graduated, it would be six years before Dave and I connected again.
We were both at the New Jersey Emergency Preparedness Association conference in Atlantic City. He was there to give a talk. I was there to cover it as the new meteorologist for The Press of Atlantic City.
For months, I had wanted to talk with him about New Jersey weather and climate. He had long been such a positive, trusted voice for science in the state. Still, I was nervous. We hadn’t talked in years. Would he remember me?
I’m pretty sure he did.
I walked up to him, we made small talk, and he asked about my career. Then I asked if he would be interested in doing a podcast episode with me for The Press. The show was called Something in the Air, and the idea was to look back at the previous month’s weather and place it in the larger context of climate.
He said yes.
The issue was figuring out how to do it remotely. He was in Piscataway. I was in Galloway. It was 2019: pre-COVID, pre-work-from-home, pre-remote-everything.
We ended up using Stockton University’s TV program, where The Press produced its newsmagazine show, -30-. The first couple of episodes were shaky, but they worked. I can’t find video from those early days.
Then COVID happened.
No more TV studio. Instead, I used a new program called Zoom to interview him. No virtual backgrounds, no polished setup. Just my apartment and his kitchen.
It worked, but it a far cry from today.
There were many early struggles then, mainly my fault. I couldn’t get my external mic to work on Zoom. We’d have weird black spots on the video from the video boxes being the wrong space. I think one time I forgot to hit record. Still, he kept recording with me giving grace (perhaps having the same birthday helped).
Eventually, the Something in the Air podcast turned into the Monthly Weather Roundup. We did it almost every month for years! Two of them, my other weather dad, Jim Eberwine, filled in.
The longest break was after Lee Enterprises laid me off in June 2024. I took the summer off to regroup and when I started Cup A Joe Weather and Drone, the Monthly Weather Roundup came back in October 2024.
The publicity of the episode has only grown since then. We’re back into audio podcasts, we create vertical videos from the episodes and break out parts of the show. Subtitles were added earlier in 2026 to increase your experience. All was good.
When Dave told me he was retiring, I was happy for him. He loved his work. The days (and nights) were long. He has his kids, wife and most importantly, his grandkids. He loves to travel and now he could go during the semester!
Even he doesn’t know how he’ll go from 60 hour work weeks to retirement. A Yankees game the day after his retirement and trip to Europe following that will help a bit. The reality will probably settle in later this summer. He’s also moving on from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, which he ran for years.
I hope you all enjoyed this iteration of the Monthly Weather Roundup. We documented every month of New Jersey weather for the past 7 years, giving important context that a brief sound bite or quote in an article can’t do.
“People have some level of knowledge, but they often do not appreciate the full impact weather and climate have on every aspect of society. It affects transportation, the economy, tourism, emergency management, agriculture, the environment and daily life,” Robinson said.
Now, I hope his daily life is full of snow for cross-country skiing, sunshine for his biking and time with his family.
The month of June has brought alarming news regarding drought conditions across New Jersey. As of the end of June, areas stretching from Long Beach Island down to Cape May County are experiencing extreme drought (D3), while much of the state is under severe (D2) and moderate drought (D1) categories. Farmers, like those from Headley Family Farm in Eagleswood, are feeling the impact as irrigation systems struggle to maintain crops amidst low surface water and minimal precipitation.
The next drought monitor report, set to be released on July 2nd, will provide an update on these conditions. Interestingly, while the highlands have seen some recovery with recent rains, the coastal areas remain critically dry. This disparity highlights the need for targeted rainfall to alleviate stress on water resources.
June’s precipitation levels reflect a troubling trend, with New Jersey averaging below-normal rainfall for the month. This marks the twenty-third out of the last twenty-six months with below-average precipitation, a situation not seen since the mid-1960s. Dr. Robinson notes that this persistent drought is characterized more by its longevity than by extreme dry spells. In the past two years, New Jersey has seen consistent deficits, with precipitation often falling to about 75% of normal levels.
The coastal counties have been particularly hard hit, receiving only a fraction of the expected rainfall. For instance, Cape May recorded just over two inches for June, compared to the average of nearly four inches. This ongoing drought not only threatens crops but also raises concerns about water availability for residents and wildlife.
As we reflect on the month’s weather, it’s also a moment to acknowledge Dr. Dave Robinson, who has been New Jersey’s state climatologist since 1991 (which as long as Joe Martucci’s been alive). As he prepares for retirement, he shares his mixed feelings about leaving a position he has held with pride. Robinson emphasizes the importance of proper timing in transitioning from a career, noting that he looks forward to spending more time with family and pursuing personal interests, including his writing projects.
Dr. Robinson also highlights the importance of understanding climate patterns and their implications for agriculture and water resources in New Jersey. His insights serve as a reminder of the impact weather and climate have on our daily lives and the necessity for ongoing monitoring and research.
With the hot summer months ahead, the potential for heatwaves raises further concerns about drought conditions. New Jersey typically experiences its wettest month in July, but the current forecasts suggest that the areas most in need of rain may continue to face challenges. Robinson urges residents to be proactive in water conservation and to stay informed about local restrictions.
As we move into July, the call for rain is more urgent than ever. The combination of high temperatures and low humidity could exacerbate the already dry conditions, leading to increased fire risks during holiday celebrations like Independence Day. Residents should be mindful of fire safety and follow local guidelines to protect their communities.
June has been a month of mixed emotions and pressing challenges for New Jersey. As we bid farewell to Dr. Robinson, we also prepare for the ongoing struggle against drought. Understanding these weather patterns is crucial for adapting to future climate challenges. For now, we hope for a shift in the weather that brings much-needed rain to our parched state.
What is the current drought status in New Jersey?
As of late June, New Jersey is facing severe drought conditions, particularly in coastal areas.
How does the drought impact local farmers?
Farmers are struggling with low surface water and are relying heavily on irrigation to sustain their crops.
Why is Dr. Dave Robinson stepping down?
Dr. Robinson is retiring to spend more time with family and pursue personal projects.
WEDNESDAY’S FORECAST | Today’s the warmup day (no pun intended) for what will be our most intense heat in years. 100F+ inland heat is still likely and all-time records are not ruled out either. Hydrate, hydrate, hydrate! I got your forecast.
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Meteorologist Joe Martucci is tracking NOAA’s HeatRisk forecast for Friday across the state, and most of New Jersey is in a Level 4, or extreme, heat risk. The key word here is “rare.” That’s the kind of heat setup expected later this week.
Triple-digit heat is virtually guaranteed on Thursday, July 3, for inland Ocean and Monmouth counties. Inland Cape May and Atlantic counties are also likely to reach 100 degrees. Even on the Fourth of July, triple-digit temperatures remain very possible, with an even higher heat index making it feel hotter.
New Jersey’s all-time record highs at these climate sites range from 102 to 106 degrees. Using NOAA data, Martucci notes that Monmouth County Airport and Millville both have about a coin-flip chance of breaking their all-time record highs on Friday. That means not just tying the record, but breaking it. Atlantic City International Airport has about a 40% chance as well.
It’s not only the daytime heat that stands out. Overnight temperatures could also challenge all-time warm low temperature records. The highest chance appears to be in Lower Township on Friday, with about a 40% chance of breaking the warmest low temperature on record. Monmouth County Airport and Millville have a chance, too.
No matter how you slice it, this is shaping up to be near-historic, and possibly record-breaking, heat heading into the Fourth of July.
Two days of triple-digit heat are on the table, and the overnight warmth will offer little relief.