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Would you rather warn people about a storm that never arrives or miss one that turns dangerous? That question sparked a lively debate on Tidal Flooding Talk, along with a reminder for the Jersey Shore: clear skies do not always mean dry streets.
Joe Martucci, Dan Skeldon and Palma Shiles tackled coastal flooding and the tough choices behind weather forecasts. Meteorologist Clayton Stiver also joined the discussion for a brief appearance. The show is presented by the New Jersey Coastal Coalition.
The hosts discussed tidal flooding in Southern California and Florida, then connected those concerns to life along New Jersey’s coast. Their message was simple: flooding does not always need a hurricane or a powerful nor’easter.
Onshore winds can push water toward the coast and keep it from draining away. When that happens during higher tides, streets can flood even without rain. Martucci described a recent stretch of this pattern as a “dry nor’easter.”
The group also explained that flood levels vary by location. Minor, moderate and major flooding describe the impacts, but the water level needed to reach each category differs from place to place.
Shiles then turned the conversation into a game of “Would You Rather?” Her first question put public safety and a forecaster’s reputation on the line.
“I would rather predict a major storm that never happens,” Skeldon said.
He explained that an unexpected dangerous storm could put lives and property at risk. A forecast that misses the mark can hurt a meteorologist’s reputation, but an unprepared community faces much greater harm.
Stiver agreed, pointing to the purpose behind the job.
“That is the ultimate goal, like keeping people safe and healthy,” he said.
Martucci agreed about warning people ahead of a dangerous hurricane. His first thought, though, was about snow forecasts and how people react when promised snow never falls.
“Overhyping snow can ruin your career,” Martucci said.
The questions also covered public forecast grades, social media comments and whether it would be harder to work without radar or computer models. Skeldon said the answer depends on the weather threat: radar matters for tracking severe storms, while models help forecasters look ahead to a nor’easter.
Behind the jokes was a practical message for coastal families. Knowing your flood risk and making a plan can help before water reaches your street.
“Choose a meeting place, make a contact list and practice your evacuation route,” Shiles said. “Don’t wait until the last minute to figure it out.”
Watch or listen to the full episode for more forecast debates, coastal flooding discussion and the personal stories that keep the conversation lively. New episodes of Tidal Flooding Talk arrive every Tuesday.
