The same weather pattern has been repeating itself since beach season began on Memorial Day weekend â heat and sunshine mid-week, followed by cool, sometimes wet weekends â and itâs not a good one for our shore economy.
If you really want to get technical about it, the last time there was no measurable rain at any Jersey Shore location was May 10-11, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS).
That being said, the weekend of May 17-18 only had less than a 10th of an inch of rain. Furthermore, we needed that May and early June rain because it helped crush our worst drought since 2002. Without it, the state drinking water supply would have been in serious trouble as water usage peaks about now.
My Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card is off to its worst start in the eight years it’s been done. Look for new updates on my social media pages after the weekend ends.
The reason for these gloomy, cooler weekends is part bad weather luck, and part science.
The science
The summer weather we think of â sunny, humid, hot inland, but cooler by the water â doesnât really settle in until about the middle of June, which is now.
Obviously, Fatherâs Day weekend didnât feel like summer weather was near. Highs struggled to reach 70 degrees, and clouds and showers were around. However, long-term weather science, what we call climatology, proves that summer weather is coming soon.
Up until this point, our weather is dominated by whatâs called the Maritime Tropical Air Mass, which brings hot and humid weather pushing into the Continental Polar Air Mass â a dry, cold air mass that sits over us during the winter. The result is rain, thunderstorms and wind as New Jersey sits in the middle of these clashing weather forces. Eventually, the Maritime Tropical Air Mass wins out, but that doesnât happen until about now, in mid-June.
Origins of airmasses across the globe. New Jersey is influenced by the cP, Continental Polar airmass from roughly October to May. However, the mT, Maritime Tropical airmass, dominates during summer. That brings the fairly consistent hot and humid weather.
That explains the potential for highs in the 60s and 70s as well as rain makers. However, it doesnât explain why this happens on weekends. For that we look to the jet stream.
The jet stream is the river of air between 25,000 and 40,000 feet above sea level. To the north is a cooler air mass, in our case the Continental Polar Air Mass, and to the south is a warmer air mass called the Maritime Tropical Air Mass.
The jet stream is a key driver of weather patterns. Think of it as a train track for low-pressure systems. When itâs over the Mid-Atlantic you can expect wetter, or at least cloudy weather. The jet stream does not move due west to east in a straight line. There are kinks in the jet stream called Rossby Waves.
Caused by the rotation of the Earth, Rossby Waves can create troughs of lower pressure (equatorward dips) or ridges (polarward bulges) of high pressure. There are usually about five of these Rossby Waves over the Northern Hemisphere at any given time.
The speed and size of the kinks vary, but they take anywhere from five to eight days to pass through. Seven days (one week) is right in the middle of that.
The bad luck
These low-pressure Rossby Wave troughs have been moving through New Jersey on weekends since mid-May. Thereâs no scientific reason for it â itâs just how things have played out. To break the bad luck you need a large pattern shift. That will come soon as the Maritime Tropical Air Mass settles into New Jersey. Until it does though, expect more of the same.
To see these pattern shifts in action, go to www.xmacis.rcc-acis.org. Go to single-station, then select graphs and then temperature graph in the drop down.
After that, select 2024 as the year and annual as the period of interest.
Finally go to station selection and choose your location via ID, list or search. You can select Atlantic City, for example, by going to change CWA, select PHI from the dropdownand then choose Atlantic City Airport area from the station option.
Temperatures donât rise evenly in the spring and drop evenly in the fall. The big jumps (like Mid-March in 2024) or downturns (like early October in 2024), show those large scale pattern shifts.
Looking ahead
There will be a pattern shift soon making our first inland heat wave of 2025 very likely. Expect sizzling temperatures starting around June 22 and lasting until about the end of the month, which would mean reaching at least 90 degrees on three or more days in a row, with overnight lows in the upper 60s and 70s, too.
As for rain, weâre moving into the time of year when large-scale storm systems donât impact New Jersey much.
Summer weather really settles in for the next three months now.
So weâre entering the season for pop-up showers and thunderstorms which can ruin a boat or beach day, but only briefly. I expect less gloomy weather in the weeks to come.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live/.
Meteorology, the study of weather, is a pretty new science, even though the word comes from Ancient Greek, meaning âthe study of things high in the air.â In 340 B.C., the Greek philosopher Aristotle wrote a paper called âMeteorologica,â but after that, not much happened in weather science for 2,000 years.
Things began to change in the 1700s when tools like the thermometer (to measure temperature) and the barometer (to measure air pressure) were invented. These tools let people start observing and recording weather data. But progress was slow until the 1830s when Samuel Morse invented the telegraph. This allowed weather information to be shared quickly across long distances, and thatâs when modern record-keeping really began. Even so, weather forecasts back then were basic and often wrong.
It wasnât until the 1950s and 1960s, when computers were developed, that meteorology really took off and became the advanced science we know today. Since most of the big discoveries in meteorology happened fairly recently, we have good records of the people who helped shape the field. I chose four important meteorologists to highlight, plus two more who are special to me personally.
In 340 B.C., the Greek philosopher wrote a paper called âMeteorologica,â which became the basis for all modern-day texts on weather for more than 1,300 years. Broken down into four books, the first three, dealt with what weâd now call meteorology, according to H. Howard Frisinger in his 1972 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Aristotle was the first major figure to illustrate major weather-related concepts such as:
1) The Earth is a sphere (itâs really slightly oval but this is close enough).
2) Astronomy had to do with what we now know as outer space, and meteorology had to do with what we now know as the atmosphere.
3) Weather varies by region and seasons based on latitude and proximity to water.
4) Wind is air in motion.
5) How the water cycle works. He noted that water evaporates from the Earthâs surface due to the sunâs heat, cools in the atmosphere and falls back to earth as precipitation.
He didnât get everything right. For example, he believed that earthquakes were caused by underground winds. Itâs also important to note that not all of these ideas were his own. Frisinger notes that some came from the Egyptians and the Babylonians. Still, he was the first to curate all of this into a text that would be cited frequently until the 1700s and even later. You canât have a list of greatest meteorologists without including him.
Cleveland Abbe
The current conditions at your local airport, the surface weather map you see and Americaâs largest source of employment for weather forecasters are all traced back to Cleveland Abbe
The National Weather Service calls him âAmericaâs First Weather Forecaster.â Born in 1836 in New York City, he attended Harvard University and then moved to Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1868, becoming the director of the Cincinnati Observatory.
He progressed tremendously in the science of meteorology from then on, persuading telegraph operators to report daily weather conditions by using guidelines that he established. That included wind direction, wind speed, type of clouds, sky color, rain amounts, temperatures and barometer readings.
On Sept. 2, 1869, The Cincinnati Commercial newspaper reported weather conditions for four cities. By the end of the month it was nine, and in 1870 it grew to 69. It was the first time the public and scientists alike could know what was happening in other parts of the country in less than a day â tremendous for the time.
The success was so great that Congress passed a resolution on Feb. 9, 1870 to create a national Bureau of Storm Signals. Under the United States Army, it created stations across the country, taking weather readings three times a year. On Nov. 1, the first observations were reported back to Washington, D.C.
The first United States weather observations that were done across the country at the same time. This is Nov. 1, 1870.
Abbe was then asked by the federal government to begin what we now know as the National Weather Service. He did so in 1870, laying the foundation for meteorology in the United States, and creating standardized methods of data observation and primitive forecasting. He would go on to create the Monthly Weather Review, which still exists within the American Meteorological Society.
The War Department of the United States was responsible for issuing surface weather maps in 1872. Using the small, but national network of observations, early meteorologists plotted air pressure systems and wind direction. (via National Weather Service)
Dr. Vilhelm Bjerknes
To put it simply, modern weather forecasting as we know it does not happen without Vilhelm Bjerknes. The Norwegian (1862-1951) founded the Bergen School of Meteorology in 1917, developing the thought process that essentially created modern meteorology.
Bjerknes, and the Bergen School built on Abbeâs weather mapping, established modern meteorology. They introduced:
1) Cold and warm fronts â narrow zones of weather such as rain or snow separating air masses.
2) The lifecycle of mid-latitude cyclones and low-pressure systems like norâeasters impacting areas from Florida to Alaska.
3) Numerical weather forecasting, using equations to predict future weather from current conditions.
Forecast computer models are more accurate than ever before. This data is from the European model and does not factor in Meterologists, which add skill to these computer model forecasts, too. (Via Hannah Ritchie on Wikipedia)
Bjerknesâ equations were visionary, but incomputable until 1950. The first six-hour forecast was done by hand and took six weeks. Todayâs equations are far more precise, powered by computers that are far more powerful than the 1950s versions, delivering fairly accurate forecasts for human meteorologists to refine. Numerical prediction dominates, but artificial intelligence is gaining ground in 2025.
Dr. William Gray
Considered the father of hurricane forecasting, in 1984 William Gray took on what the weather community still couldnât touch by forecasting the tropical cyclones months out, and made it his own.
A United States Air Force veteran, he earned his PhD in 1964 at the University of Chicago. He then went to Colorado State University, a landlocked state, to research hurricane forecasting.
Gray looked at big patterns like ocean temperatures, El Niño, and rainfall in Africaâs Sahel region, to make seasonal hurricane forecasts, with accuracy. His work helped communities prepare months in advance, saving lives and property.
Grayâs methods mixed real-world data with science, making forecasts more accurate. He also discovered that the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin go up and down in roughly 30-year cycles. We are currently in a high-activity period. However, it began in 1995, therefore, we should see less activity through the 2030s and 2040s.
The cycles of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. (Via National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
His legacy lives on through his student Phil Klotzbach, who continues the forecasts, and other scientists worldwide who use similar ideas. Gray wrote more than 80 research papers and mentored many meteorologists.
Dr. Dave Robinson
Dave Robinson, the New Jersey State Climatologist and I during our March Monthly Weather Roundup Show you can watch for free. Dave is my birthday buddy (May 13) and weather dad.
Dave Robinson is one of my two âweather dads,â former research advisor and my birthday buddy. Robinson is the New Jersey state climatologist and Americaâs longest serving state climatologist of all time, a job he took on in 1991. I was born the same year, so he really is my weather dad in a way. He is also a distinguished professor at Rutgers University.
As the state climatologist, he runs the New Jersey Weather Network. Over 60 stations give super specific, up-to-date weather info for local areas. His network is great at catching things like cool sea breezes or strong wind gusts from a single thunderstorm, as well as doing it more frequently than the bigger national weather networks.
He also runs the stateâs Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), the nationâs largest citizen scientist program. Some of you are CoCoRaHS members because of his work and outreach. Anytime you see me, another meteorologist, or journalist talk about specific weather or climate conditions in the state, he has his hands on it. Furthermore, heâs been my co-host of the âMonthly Weather Roundupâ show online since 2018.
Globally, heâs known for his snow cover resources. Heâs the operator of the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. Researchers across the globe use this for their research. Not many people like snow more than he does, and even in New Jersey, heâll get a good snowshoe in after fresh powder comes down.
Jim Eberwine
Jim Eberwine and I are all smiles in the Joe DiMaggio room at The Irish Pub in Atlantic City!
Jimâs my second weather dad. A United States Marine Corps veteran, he spent decades at the National Weather Service, first at Atlantic City International Airport, and then at Mount Holly, Burlington County, until he retired in 2010.
Jim Eberwine isnât really retired, though. He helps keep Absecon safe as the emergency management coordinator, teaches a class at Atlantic-Cape Community College and works with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to train others.
Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, Jim and Dean Iovino, retired lead meteorologist for the NWS, worked together on something cool. They figured out which streets near the coast would flood during nuisance events. They called their project âOperation Crabcakeâ because they ate crabcakes together while working on it. Their work helped people know when their streets might get flooded just by checking tide forecasts.
Jim walked 127 miles, from Sandy Hook to Cape May, and even other places like Delaware Bay and the Delaware River, recording videos of spots that flood easily. His hard work helped emergency teams and weather experts work better together. People were amazed at how well Jim knew every roadâs flooding potential.
If you follow me online, youâll see me call both Dave and Jim my weather dad. Theyâre mentors, friends and people that helped me with my professional weather career. I talk to Jim on the phone about once a week, and we text even more.
Jim is South Jersey Shore weather, and, in many ways, his legacy is stronger than ever before.
Hurricane season begins on June 1. Really, in New Jersey, we like to say that thereâs a 12-month hurricane season. After all, itâs the water, not the wind, that causes the most devastation, and norâeasters bring plenty of water.
This year, there are six. They range from rip currents to wind forecasts, to the change in the size of the forecast cone that you see. Here are the updates below, including how youâll be able to see them.
Inland watches and warnings on the forecast cone map
The forecast cone is the essential part of understanding what is going on with a tropical system. The cone shows the forecasted path, along with data on location, movement, wind speed as well as watches and warnings.
Before 2024, only the coast was outlined in the applicable watches and warnings (Tropical Storm Watch, Hurricane Warning, etc.) on the map. However, these alerts often went well inland and there was no way to see that on the map.
Current conditions and forecast cone for Hurricane Irene in 2011. New Jersey was 48 hours away from landfall, which came ashore as a weaker. tropical storm. Note that red hurricane warnings only outline the coast (National Hurricane Center).
Last year, the NHC added all areas that were in watches and warnings to the map, whether they were a coastal county or not on an experimental basis. This year, they continue to keep it, but âwill now contain the symbology for areas where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are simultaneously in effect (diagonal pink and blue lines).
Current conditions and forecast cone for Hurricane Helene in 2024. Note that red hurricane warnings extend inland to Florida and Georgia. also, there is a shaded pink and blue area in the Tampa, west coast, region of Florida (National Hurricane Center).
So, if the Jersey Shore counties were in a hurricane warning, and the inland New Jersey counties were in a tropical storm warning, all of the counties would be colored in on the map. If Atlantic County were in a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning, it would have a diagonal pink and blue line over the county. This came in handy during Hurricane Helene last September. Tropical storm watches were in effect as far inland as western North Carolina.
Before 2024, you would only know that if you lived in those counties, saw a news segment on it, or dug deep into the National Hurricane Center website. However, last year, you could see it right on the map. Of course, Helene brought catastrophic flooding to western North Carolina â $79 billion in damages were estimated to have occurred, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Rip current risks shown
When a tropical storm or hurricane is active in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, the National Hurricane Center will provide rip current risk information on a national map. This also includes places like Puerto Rico and Guam.
The rip current risks will be provided for the day of and the next day, along with a map showing the highest risk over the next two days. This is really for people who want a more national view of whatâs happening.
Our National Weather Service local office has put out rip current and surf information for years. You can also check out my Sea and Sand video forecasts for Jersey Shore specific information. However, this is a great way to see the risks in one place.
The National Hurricane Center’s new Rip Current Risk map interface.
More lead time for undeveloped storms
June, July, October and November can bring tropical storms or even hurricanes that quickly develop and make landfall on the East Coast. Tropical Storm Fay made landfall at the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge at the far southern end of Long Beach Island at around 4 p.m. on July 10, 2020. It became a tropical storm just 23 hours earlier. However, the hurricane center knew Fay would hit New Jersey as a tropical storm even before it became a tropical system.
This update is for situations like this. The National Hurricane Center can issue tropical cyclone advisory products, like forecast updates, watches and warnings, 72 hours before the storm surge or wind hit land, regardless of the stormâs status at the time. Last year, it was 48 hours. So, this is an extension of it.
Extended wind radius forecast
The category of a tropical system is based upon the maximum sustained wind speed. However, tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater) or hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater) can extend for long stretches beyond the core of the storm.
You have to dig through the hurricane centerâs website for it, but they do forecast the size of tropical cyclone wind fields in each of the stormâs four quadrants: northeast (most destructive part), southeast, southwest and northwest).
In the past, the hurricane wind radius forecasts went out 48 hours. This year, it will go out 72 hours, a testament to the improving accuracy of hurricane forecasting. To find this, search for the âTropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory productâ when a storm is active. Itâs abbreviated as TCM, too.
Forecast track cone will shrink
Most of the above updates are due to the impressive work done by the meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane forecasts have become better with time, allowing more useful information to be given to you, with bigger lead times.
Each year, the hurricane center updates the size of their track forecast error cone. This is based on the accuracy of the stormâs track over the past five years.
This year, the size of the cone for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin will be smaller at seven of the nine forecast periods from 3 to 120 hours out. This includes all periods 24 hours and later. The most significant will be a 6% reduction in size for the 60-hour and 96-hour forecast.
How the size of the forecast cone will change for the Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Basins in 2025, compared to 2024 (National Hurricane Center).
As an example, a larger cone in 2024 could have Atlantic City on the edge. However, thanks to this improvement, Atlantic City could be out of the cone. That has huge implications for emergency management operations, evacuations and more.
The official track error trend for Atlantic Hurricane Basin storms. Note the decrease in error since 1990 on all time scales.
Major update to Hawaii forecasts
The likelihood of a certain height of storm surge hitting a coastline is now operational in Hawaii. Itâll be initiated by the National Hurricane Centerâs Storm Surge Unit and made available within 72 hours of hurricane impacts. Storm surge forecast maps began on the mainland United States in 2016.
Watch our Interview with the National Hurricane Center Director
If you go to my YouTube or Facebook pages (@JoeMartWx), catch a special interview with Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center. Itâs all part of the Tidal Flooding Talk show I co-host with Dan Skeldon (a familiar name to many), and Palma Shiles as part of the New Jersey Coastal Coalition. When you have 30 minutes, give it a watch or listen.
We shivered through our coldest winter in 10 years, held our hats during the windiest winter in 15 years, and lived the rollercoaster temperature ride of spring. Now Memorial Day weekend is here. Itâs the unofficial start of summer.
Thereâs an old saying for our beach season weekend holidays. Itâs some variation of:
Memorial Day we shiver.
Fourth of July we sweat.
Labor Day we shine.
We all want a fun Memorial Day weekend. It helps our stores make money when visitors and part-time homeowners come back. Itâs great for people who want to return to their favorite slice of sand for a few months, and itâs an awesome place for our kids and grandkids to have a good time, and our families to make memories.
But Memorial Day is in late May, during spring. That means the weather can be unpredictable and change a lot.
Looking at my Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card, the holiday weekend earned an average grade of C-plus between 2019 and 2024. That being said, the past three years all earned at least a B.
Using climate as our barometer (no weather pun intended), steady beach or boating weather begins in mid-June and ends after the Labor Day holiday, in mid-September. I use criteria from my Shore Summer Weekend Weather Report Card as a guide, with temperatures at or above 75 degrees, winds under 15 mph and a lower risk of widespread rain makers as the main benchmarks.
Temperatures
Per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), at Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City, the average high temperature hits 75 degrees on June 14. It then peaks at 81 degrees from July 12 to July 27, then it falls, dipping under 75 degrees for the first time on Sept. 15.
For about three months, itâs usually warm enough to wear a bathing suit and stay outside all day. From July 4 to around Aug. 20, beach weather is nearly guaranteed. Thereâs an 80% chance the temperature will be 75 degrees or higher, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
I checked the weather in Long Branch, Monmouth County, where the monitoring station is about a mile from the ocean. There, the average high temperature is 75 degrees or more from June 6 to Sept. 21. Itâs nearly the same as Atlantic City.
Winds
Itâs proven that winds weaken in the summer.Our least windy time of year is July through September, which fits in fairly well with the temperatures. We look to Atlantic City International Airport for this data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
May: 9.5 mph
June: 8.6 mph
July: 7.9 mph
August: 7.5 mph
September: 8.0 mph
October: 8.5 mph
As the Earthâs axis tilts and the Northern Hemisphere warms, wind-making systems, including norâeasters and powerful cold fronts, stop passing here around mid-June. This lasts through about mid-October.
Of course there are tropical storms and hurricanes that bring plenty of wind. While we always need to prepare, our likelihood of experiencing one is fairly low. This year, Colorado State University gives New Jersey a 29% chance of a tropical storm, and a 9% chance of a hurricane impacting our coast.
Steady rain
From mid-June to mid-October, widespread rain makers are hard to come by here in New Jersey. Just like the winds, the norâeasters and powerful cold fronts, the weather systems that would bring widespread rain donât impact us this time of year.
However, this time of year is when thunderstorms happen a lot. Theyâre most common from June 15 to Aug. 15, based on info from Atlantic City International Airport. A thunderstorm might change your beach plans for a few hours, but the all-day rainy days we see in spring are pretty rare.
Shifting climate
Interestingly, the warmest 91-day period of the year has shifted to slightly earlier over the decades. In Atlantic City, hereâs the shift, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
1900: June 17 to Sept. 16
1980: June 15 to Sept. 14
2020: June 14 to Sept. 13
The average temperature during climatological summer â June through August â increased by 0.65 degrees between 2010 and 2020 in southeastern New Jersey, according to ClimateCentral. Since 1904, the average summer temperature has increased from 71.0 to 74.0 degrees, per NOAA.
So where can you find true beach weather on Memorial Day?
Long-term weather averages say that once you go south to Virginia Beach, Va., average high temperatures reach at or above 75 degrees, according to NOAA. That being said, the beaches are better in Jersey, from what I hear.
Have a great Memorial Day weekend everyone, happy unofficial start to summer and letâs remember all of our fallen United States military members. Itâs why we have Memorial Day in the first place.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live/.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says June, July and August â âclimatological summer,â will likely be warmer than normal. Thereâs also a small chance we might get enough rain to help with the drought in Jersey Shore counties, but itâs not a big chance.
NOAA is really good at predicting summer weather, like how hot it will be and how much rain we will get. Here, I took their forecast and mixed it with what I know about the Jersey Shore to make a special prediction just for our beaches.
Temperatures
Itâll be a great summer to head to the ocean and bays as often as possible to cool off.
Hot summers are nothing new for us. The summer of 2024 was the third hottest summer on record in New Jersey, according to Dave Robinson, the New Jersey State climatologist and co-host of the Monthly Weather Roundup on my social media channels. In fact, nine of the 10 hottest summers have been since 2010.
This summer looks to follow in our recent footsteps. The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, based in Silver Spring, Md., forecasts New Jersey to be âlikely aboveâ average when it comes to temperatures. The biggest departures from average should be in the first half of the summer â from June 1 to the Fourth of July. However, note that July is our hottest month of the year, on average.
Keep in mind the warmer nights, too. Low temperatures generally have risen faster than high temperatures in recent decades. Without air conditioning, low temperatures at or above 75 degrees make it difficult to sleep, causing health issues.
Using the commonly defined 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, the Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City normally has 12 days with low temperatures at or above 75 degrees in a year, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Expect more than that this year. For reference, the period of record average from 1893 to 2024 is five.
For the inland part of the coastal counties, that number varies from two to six, depending on where you are. Again, expect more than usual.
On the high temperature side, inland areas average five to six days a year at or above 95 degrees. Atlantic City Marina averages about one such sweltering day a year. However, for non-barrier island coastal towns, itâs about two.
Rainfall
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is âleaning aboveâ in terms of a wetter-than-average summer at the Jersey Shore. This means it might rain more than usual, but itâs not certain. Itâs like flipping a coin where itâs a bit more likely to land on heads, but tails could still happen.
To end drought, we will need 1.25 inches of rainfall a week. Thereâs no week of the year where we average that. Furthermore, that rain needs to be widespread; it canât just be a thunderstorm in a few towns, which is what most of our summer precipitation is. Weâll need to rely on a remnant tropical system to receive helpful, widespread rain. Last year that did not occur in New Jersey, which began our drought. Hopefully, it stays that way and a tropical storm or hurricane doesnât hit.
Will the Jersey Shore be humid?
This summer at the Jersey Shore, the air wonât always feel super sticky, but when it does, itâll feel really sticky. The stickiness comes from something called the dew point, which shows how much water is in the air, measured in degrees Fahrenheit.
At Atlantic City International Airport, the dew point averaged 65 degrees from June to August, based on data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Thatâs a bit above normal, but not crazy muggy. This summer should be about average for stickiness, but get ready for some days that feel super humid, and others that donât. Itâll be up and down.
Will our beaches be buggy?
Bugs on the beach are a fact of life at the shore, for better or for worse. They are caused by winds from the westerly direction (mainly southwest or west) blowing the greenheads or black flies onto the coastline and then our legs and neck.
This year, sadly, we should expect more days with bugs than usual.
There is a good consensus among the climate computer forecast models that the clockwise-spinning Bermuda high will be locked in for the summer. Thatâs known for generating southwesterly winds and that hazy, hot and humid weather. Furthermore, thereâs a higher-than-usual chance of high pressure centering itself in the Virginias or Carolinas. That would bring a westerly wind around the clockwise spinning system.
My Sea and Sand video forecasts, which you can find Wednesday through Sunday mornings on my social media channels, will always have a bug forecast. Stay tuned.
Will extreme coastal upwelling continue?
The ocean water was in the 50s and lower 60s deep into July in 2024 â later than usual. That was due to upwelling. When south-to-southwest winds blow, the warmer water at the sea surface is pushed from the immediate coast to offshore. Then, colder water at the sea floor moves up right off the beach.
Cold ocean water is good for fish and sea animals because it has more food for them. But it can make swimming in the ocean a bit chilly.
This summer, the ocean at the Jersey Shore probably wonât stay as cold for as long as it did in 2024. Expect chilly dips, but it should not be consistently deep into summer.
Tropical storms or hurricanes
The Jersey Shore has a slightly greater-than-usual chance to be within 50 miles of a landfall from a tropical storm or hurricane, according to Colorado State Universityâs forecast. That was put out in April, and will be updated again in June.
Thereâs a 28% chance of a tropical storm, 9% chance of a hurricane and a 1% chance of a major hurricane. In our area on average, the likelihood of those is 23%, 7% and 1%, respectively. Hopefully, it doesnât happen.
Weekend weather report card
Iâm very thankful to have your support as I graded the summer weekend weather at the shore for the eighth summer in a row. Last yearâs summer earned a B-plus, a 3.3 grade point average.
Since 2018, all grades have been between a 3.0 and 3.4 grade point average, a B to a B-plus. Using history as a guide, weâll be around the same this year. Look for my updated report card every Monday or Tuesday on my social media channels.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live/.
Consider 164 endangered or threatened species conserved and recovered, 47 rebuilt fish stocks since 2000 and 1.5 million forecasts and warnings each year â thatâs just some of the scope of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which is part of the United States Department of Commerce.
Between layoffs, buyouts and early retirements, over 2,400 NOAA employees have departed from the agency since February. It represents a combined 27,000 years of experience, according to DaNa Carlis, director at NOAA. This is part of the fallout from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)âs cost-cutting crusade.
Iâve been asked more than a few times what my thoughts are on this. I donât work for NOAA, I never have. However, I have friends that do, mainly at the National Weather Service, probably the most popular arm of NOAA. One friend no longer work for NOAA as a result of what has happened over the past few months.
Thereâs also the elephant in the room â the politics. I ask you to ask yourselves, how would you feel if Kamala Harris, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., or Joe Biden had done this? I also remind you that Congress, not the president, is given the power of the purse.
Like climate change, there are facts, and then there are questions about how to feel or not feel about them. I do the first part. You all motivate me to talk and write about the weather every single day. Itâs tremendous.
With all of that being said, letâs break it down.
The facts
Roughly 20% of NOAAâs nearly 13,000 employees have left since the end of February. That breaks down to the following:
About 1,000 probationary employees â those who held their current job for less than two years, per USA Today. That also includes those who worked with NOAA for decades, but just earned a promotion; 500 employees who took a voluntary buyout, per The New York Times, and an additional 1,029 workers in mid-March, according to USA Today.
Our local National Weather Service office, which is located in Mount Holly, Burlington County, and was located at Atlantic City International Airport as recently as the mid-1990s, did not have layoffs. They provide us with human-curated forecasts, public outreach and, perhaps most importantly, weather watches, warnings as well as advisories.
In offices where there have been reductions, there have been fewer public outreach events. There has been less ability to conduct meteorological research outside of forecasting and, in a worst-case scenario, the Goodland, Kansas National Weather Service office temporarily stepped away from 24-hour coverage.
Around-the-clock coverage is crucial. Even on âquietâ weather days, something like wildfire, air pollution, tornadoes, or tsunamis may occur. NWS meteorologists are there to account for that around the clock, not to mention phone calls from your local or county government, or any member of the public.
In the United States, and our territories, weather balloon launches have been suspended in Kotzebue, Alaska; Omaha, Neb.; Rapid City, S.D.; Albany, N.Y. and Gray, Maine. Weather balloons are our eyes in the sky, providing crucial data up to 50,000 feet high. Launched twice daily, they collect data too high to be observed by weather stations. Temperatures, dew point, pressure, wind speed and wind direction are all included in this.
This is still a small percentage of the balloon launches. However, every single forecast weather model is only as good as the data being put into it. High-resolution balloon launches are a key part of this. Compared to last year, there is a large coverage gap in the Northern Great Plains and New England.
The National Aeronautical and Space Administration, which needs highly accurate and precise weather forecasts for launching rockets into space, says that 18% of their observations come from weather balloon launches.
Hurricane season starts June 1. The National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service in Miami, Fla., just set a new record for prediction accuracy from 12 hours out, down to 5 days out. Staff involved in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, critical for improving track and intensity forecasts, were cut. A few hurricane hunter crew members were impacted, too.
The entire external affairs team for NOAA was laid off. They are the people I speak with for interviews, data and more. Scientists working on artificial intelligence climate prediction were also let go. That includes Zack Labe, who is a good follow on social media.
The forecast
In fiscal year 2024, NOAA had a $6.8 billion budget. The proposed 2025 Trump administration NOAA budget is down to $6.6 billion, and the administration proposes a reduction of $1.67 billion in NOAAâs fiscal year 2026 budget. Funding from NOAA ultimately trickles down to the National Weather Service budget.
The administrationâs proposal suggests ending a variety of research grants to individuals, organizations and data related to climate. Cuts to grants such as âPolicy Experience in Equity, Climate and Health,â are mentioned, too. This also asks for a $8 billion cut to the satellite program.
If you read the full description of cuts, it doesnât specifically mention cuts to weather operations. While climate and weather are separate, they are under the same umbrella, no pun intended. Itâs like how you need flour and water, two different items, to make bread. To get our clearest possible understanding of the environment, you need both.
According to NOAAâs âpassbackâ document from a few weeks ago, funding for the National Weather Service would revert back to 2024âs level. The proposal calls for moving the Space Weather Prediction Center to the Department of Homeland Security. They are the ones that provide data on the aurora borealis, including the serene scene we had at the Jersey Shore from the Northern Lights last October.
Outside of the National Weather Service, but within NOAA, no funding would be provided for Coastal Zone Management Grants, which helps coastal towns and nonprofits address coastal flooding and erosion. The National Coastal Resilience Fund would be eliminated, which supports the restoration and enhancement of natural infrastructure to protect our shore.
The next generation of weather satellites, named Geostationary Extended Observers (GenXO), would be cancelled. However, the document does maintain that a new upgrade to satellites is needed in the 2030s. An increase of $46.5 million is proposed to fund low earth orbit satellites, such as the ones that collect weather data at the Earthâs poles.
This is the Trump administration proposal. Congress will then review this and make adjustments that work for Congress and the president.
The NWS has been understaffed for years. Even before 2025, the National Weather Service offices had a number of vacancies across the United States. Now, roughly 50% of the 122 weather forecasts are at least 20% short of fully being staffed.
The National Weather Service has reorganized before, most recently in the 1990s. That moved the local office at Atlantic City International Airport to its current location in Mt. Holly.
You can make the argument that the NWS, and its parent NOAA reorganization, need cuts to reduce the federal debt, which stands at $36.8 trillion on May 5. You can make the argument that if the government needs to conduct reductions in force and that there should be a master plan to account for this.
You can make the argument that NOAA needed to stay at its current levels or maybe even double in size. Thatâs not the purpose of this column.
However, saying âmy phone app tells me the weather so we donât need NOAAâ is not an answer. As Marshall Shepherd, former president of the American Meteorological Society wrote in Forbes, thatâs like saying you donât need potato farmers because you can get french fries from McDonaldâs. NOAA is the source that provides data to weather apps, and to your friendly, local meteorologists, too.
Furthermore, the argument that AI advances mean we donât need all of these NOAA jobs is not true either. AI canât conserve endangered species, or rebuild fish stocks on their own. They certainly donât have the internal knowledge the Mt. Holly office has of our coastline as they issue weather alerts.
The reduction in force at NOAA is a decision based around dollars and power.
The article initially appeared in Shore Local Magazine on May 1. Find it here.
By Meteorologist Joe Martucci
The Jones Road Fire, which was first spotted at 9:45 a.m. on April 22, was New Jerseyâs largest wildfire in 18 years, swallowing up 23 square miles in Ocean County, or a little over 15,000 acres.
While drought conditions have improved across the area, the fire is a stark reminder that we are in the midst of a wildfire season that has big potential to be severe, if we are not careful.
Jones Road Wildfire update from 4/24, near the peak of the fire (New Jersey Forest Fire Service)
The Pine Barrens is such a unique landscape that maybe we take it for granted. You learn about it in elementary school, and you might even be told about the Jersey Devil (whose home is in Galloway, according to legend).
In Meteorology School at Rutgers University, you learn the sandy soil makes it cool off quickly at night. Its composition makes it perfect for growing cranberries and blueberries. The forest is so dense, that satellite imagery shows this as a noticeably darker area than the rest of the state.
All that dense forest means one fire can spread quickly. Any forest that has dry ground with low humidity and a gusty wind can increase the size of the blaze. However, the New Jersey Pine Barrens, specifically, have a few factors that make this area uniquely prone to to fine.
Pitch pine
Pitch pine, which the region gets its Pine Barrens name from, is highly flammable. The needles and bark ignite easily.
Quickly drying soil
The sandy soil of the Pinelands, known as sugar soil to the locals, drains water quickly. Think of sand on the beach. You pour a bucket of water on it and a few minutes later, that wet spot pretty much dries out.
The same is true in the Pinelands. The ground dries out faster than most forests. The old adage that it will rain overnight, and youâll have wildfire by noon is based on this truth. This yearâs drought only amplifies that.
Topography and wind
The Pine Barrens in New Jersey are flat, like a big, open field. The trees there arenât very tall, and their tops (called the canopy) have lots of gaps. This makes fires spread really fast.
Because the trees are shorter, wind from above can blow down to the ground where the fire is, without getting blocked like in other forests with taller trees.
Forest next to people
Map of New Jersey, with the Pinelands National Reserve in the green outline. (State of New Jersey)
The Garden State Parkway is like a big boundary line in New Jersey. It separates the wild, state-protected Pinelands Area to the west from towns and cities to the east.
In Ocean County, starting at Toms River and going south, the west side of the Parkway is the Pinelands, while the east side has homes, stores, and businesses.
The Jones Road Fire happened in Ocean County. In Atlantic County, the Parkway separates the Pinelands from developed areas until about Mays Landing. In Cape May County, the Pinelands National Reserve follows the Parkway from Marmora down to around Swainton and Goshen.
You donât have to go far from the Pinelands to find busy places! In Ocean County, right across the Parkway, there are huge neighborhoods with lots of houses. In Lacey Township and Ocean Township, where the Jones Road Fire burned, over 35,000 people live with homes, shops, and more, just a short distance from the forest.
Plus, you have to consider the Garden State Parkway running through there. In 2018, 389 million toll transactions took place on the road, according to NJ.com. When the Parkway closes, it backs up traffic and slows the local economy.
Last Tuesday, I had to go north, through the Jones Road Fire on the Parkway. I was diverted onto County Road 539 in Ocean County.
Thankfully, the traffic was moving north. However, going south on that one lane it was bumper-to-bumper traffic for miles. Itâs an issue which could happen in the South Jersey shore area, too.
This drought plays a role
As of April 25, 662 wildfires have occurred in New Jersey this year â 16,572 acres burned, the vast majority of that the Jones Road Fire.
Last year through by April 25, about half as many wildfires occurred, burning just 315 acres.
The difference is drought. When the Jones Road Fire began, that area was in a transitionary state between drought and no drought, known as abnormally dry conditions, according to the United States Drought Monitor.
All of Atlantic and nearly all of Cape May counties were officially in drought. Plus, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection put forth a drought warning for the state in November.
Drought means, among other things, the ground is dry, and the water table is lower. This only enhanced the spread of wildfire.
There has been no wetter-than-average month in 2025. Statewide, it was the third driest January on record, according to the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist (0.92 inch average).
February was below average, too. March then bucked the trend, with nearly average precipitation. April should come in around the same (not known at the time of writing).
Last year was nearly the opposite. It was the wettest start of the year, on record, through April 25, at Atlantic City International Airport, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Located on the edge of the Pine Barrens, itâs a good indicator for the South Jersey Pinelands.
Precipitation accumulated for Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township from January 1 to April 25, 2024. Last year was the wettest start to the year, on record, up to April 25.
In Hammonton, farther into the Pine Barrens, it was the sixth wettest. Records have been kept fairly regularly since 1893.
As long as drought continues, and I believe it will in Atlantic and Cape May counties into the summer, the potential for another Jones Road Fire is higher than usual.
You can prevent wildfires
About 85% of wildfires in the United States are caused by humans, according to the United States Forest Service. Fire is a natural and needed part of our ecosystem. However, humans disrupt Mother Natureâs rhythm, which would typically happen from lightning strikes.
The old adage goes that in New Jersey, once you get to Motherâs Day you can start planting your gardens. That holds merit. Motherâs Day in the United States is celebrated between May 8 and May 11 (May 11 this year), on the second Sunday in May.
At Atlantic City International Airport in Egg Harbor Township, thereâs an 11% chance that low temperatures will be at or below freezing on or after May 8, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Go to May 14, and thatâs happened just twice in the 80-year history of weather records at the airport.
Cross the bridges to the beaches and your risk of a freeze goes away completely. The latest freeze on record at Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City, is April 30. That was back in 1874, the first year of record keeping in the then-young city. Note that the northern Jersey Shore has had freezes as late as May 11. However, thereâs only a 7% chance of a May freeze.
You donât need to rely on the old adage for your planting advice this season. Your friendly, neighborhood, Shore Local meteorologist can help you with the question of whether or not itâs time to plant this spring.
Low temperatures on April 18, 2025, the last inland freeze of the spring, so far. (Image via the National Weather Service)
When was our final freeze of the season?
Was April 18 the last freeze in the inland parts of the Jersey Shore in the 2025 season? Woodbine (Cape May County), Tuckahoe (Cape May County), as well as parts of Ocean and Monmouth counties dipped below 32 degrees. While Atlantic County did not report a freeze, there was localized patchy frost, which harms young plants as well. At the immediate coast, the last widespread freeze was back on April 9.
Itâs differences like this that we take for granted as residents of the Jersey Shore. Most places in the United States donât have these kinds of microclimates.
What is the forecast for the rest of April?
Itâs much more likely that we will go the rest of the month without a killing freeze. The Climate Prediction Center, part of NOAA, was forecasting âlikelyâ above average temperatures for April 26 to May 2 in their April 18 update. With average low temperatures in the mid-40s inland, and near 50 at the coast, you have a better chance of putting your ceiling fan on at night than a killing freeze. I canât completely rule out frost in the rural Pine Barrens, but this is unlikely.
How about May?
The shore will be frost and freeze free. By May 1, we would need a historic polar plunge of cold air. Remember, too, that Atlantic City has never had a freeze past April 30.
For the inland part of the shore counties, 16% of Mays had a low temperature below 32 degrees. The most recent was May 11, 2010.
The general weather pattern for the Northeast in the first half of May is a thicker-than-usual atmosphere overhead. The thicker the atmosphere, the more potential for warmer air in the ground.
Of course, the cold ocean can kick in a chilly daytime sea breeze. However, sea breezes also moderate the overnight low temperature to the warmer side. So the risk of a freeze is low.
By the second half of May, freezes or frosts in this part of the state are unheard of. After May 15, youâd need a historic cold plunge to get one, and I just donât see that happening.
You can plant with confidence now
Hidden Creek Farm in Stow Creek, Cumberland County, NJ
If youâre at the beaches, you can start planting if you havenât already. Itâs not unusual to begin planting at this time.
For inland locations, like Somers Point or Egg Harbor Township, I say go for it and let the fruits and vegetables grow. Farmers planted their asparagus and spinach weeks ago, and theyâll start harvesting in early May.
When I was growing up in Union County, we used to go to my Nonnaâs (grandma in Italian) house to plant corn, plenty of tomatoes and carrots. It was one of my favorite days of the year. Each year, they would let my sister and me plant a fruit or vegetable of our choice. We tried growing watermelons with little success, and sunflowers with better success.
The plot was about 10 feet by 10 feet, but it felt like a jungle as a kid during the late summer and autumn, with stalks taller than me all around.
She is still with us, but we decommissioned the garden years ago. However, the memories last forever. I hope you have some of the same this season.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live/.
View the original article on Shore Local News on April 17 here.
You may have seen a number of articles come out in the first week of April with headlines like:
âRising Sea Levels Will Threaten 323K+ In NJ By 2050, New Study Says: See The Mapâ
âSevere coastal flooding could threaten Wildwood, Ocean City, and A.C. by 2050, report saysâ
âNew Study Projects Climate-Driven Flooding for Thousands of New Jersey Homesâ
What do they actually mean? Why such a flurry of articles from reputable news sources? They sound kind of scary.
They all come from the release of Climate CentralâsCoastal Risk Finder tool on March 31. Climate Central is a nonprofit organization based in Princeton, Mercer County, whose mission is to âaddress climate science, sea level rise, extreme weather and energy topics.â
I was fortunate enough to be asked by Climate Central to be a panelist for the public release of the product that Monday. More than 120 journalists and media meteorologists attended the virtual meeting to learn about the tool which forecasts future flooding and its socioeconomic impacts.
National Flood Insurance Program Policies In Force.
As of March, there are 200,636 flood insurance policies in force by the National Flood Insurance Program in New Jersey. Thatâs the fourth highest of the 50 states, ranking just above South Carolina. Furthermore, those policies cover over $50 billion worth of New Jersey property.
Below is a summary of what the Coastal Risk Finder shows for the present and future of the Jersey Shore, as well as how to use the tool. All of the data is based on an intermediate sea level rise scenario. This scenario lines up best with the options presented by Climate Central, in comparison with what has happened historically in Atlantic City, our primary Jersey Shore tidal location.
Interagency data from 2022 is the source for sea level rise projections used. Population is based on 2020 levels. To get the most out of the new tool, be sure to use a desktop or laptop computer.
Not much change in flooding impacts by 2030
According to the risk finder, 7.9% of people in Cape May County, and 1.9% of people in Atlantic City are at risk of water inundation in their homes at least once in 2030. Thatâs roughly what it is now. In other words, a flood 2.7 to 2.8 feet above mean higher high water (MHHW) floods the area at least once a year. MHHW is the average height of the two high tides seen per day.
By 2050, those impacts double in size
By 2050, according to the risk finder, 14% of people in Cape May County, and 4.8% people in Atlantic County are at risk from either sea level rise or a flood that happens once a year, on average.
This indicates a flood 3.2 to 3.4 feet above mean higher high water in Ocean City, which would involve most areas bayward of West Avenue, from Second Street to 18th Street. Compare that to 2030, where only areas bayward of West Avenue, from Third Street to Eighth Street, would be underwater.
Places that would flood once a year.
Our kids and grandkids could be at serious risk
Lastly, weâll look at 2100. While most of us probably wonât be alive (I would be 109 then), our kids and especially grandkids would be around. That projects a vastly higher number.
According to the risk finder, 35% of people in Cape May County, and 16% in Atlantic County would flood at least once a year. When considering just the shore towns, that number jumps to at least 65% of Ocean City and the Downbeach towns would flood during a flood thatâs 5.2 to 6.1 feet above MHHW.
Using Ocean City again, nearly everywhere bayward of Central Avenue would experience floodwater at least once a year. Thatâs nearly all of the island. Most of the Ocean City Municipal Airport would be included in that, too.
What else to consider
Your townâs emergency managers, elected officials and administrators take pride in protecting your property from floodwaters. The New Jersey Coastal Coalition, for which I do work, brings communities up and down the Jersey Shore together to share common sense flooding solutions. The result has been a reduction in your flood insurance premiums.
Ocean City is eligible for a 30% rate reduction this year. Longport, Linwood, Margate and Ventnor have all earned 25% off. Somers Point has earned 20% off.
The data and projections shown on the Coastal Risk Finder do not take into account future actions your town will take to increase their CRS score. It also doesnât consider other actions being considered by towns and the state such the NJ Resilient Environments and Landscapes program.
How to navigate the Coastal Risk Finder
First go to www.climatecentral.org. Then go to Tools and select âCoastal Risk Finderâ from the dropdown.
On the left-hand side, youâll be able to select your town, county or state. You can then select your scenario. You can view the risk by year, good for viewing what sea level rise projections will bring. Or you can view the risk by water level, which you could use to see how another Superstorm Sandy (search for 4 or 5 feet) would flood somewhere now.
If you select the risk by year, you then go to additional settings to find your scenario.
For purposes of this article, I used the sea level rise + annual flood under âprojection type.â Then, for âsea level protection sourceâ I used U.S. Interagency 2022.â Then I clicked on the âintermediateâ sea level scenario.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live/.
Youâre probably wondering why a landlocked state like Colorado would have any interest in hurricane forecasting. We owe that to the late William Gray. He came to the university in 1961. He pioneered tropical forecasting in the 1980s. Philip Klotzbach, his student, took over for him in 2006 and has done it ever since.
Here is a look at the forecast, as alongside the climate average.
Named Storms: 17, Avg. 14.4
Hurricanes: 9, Avg. 7.2
Major Hurricanes: 4, Avg. 3.2
Thereâs also another factor called the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical cyclones in a season, calculated using wind speeds from each stormâs six-hour updates. This year, the first is 155. Thatâs 150% above the average.
This is the first of what will be a few forecasts throughout the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. So, like a regular weather forecast you would see from me, the closer you get to the season, the more correct it will be.
âThe authors do note that the initial April forecast historically has the lowest level of skill of CSUâs operational seasonal hurricane forecasts, given the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere-ocean,â the press release from Colorado State reads.
Colorado State University studies years that had weather patterns like 2025 to estimate what might happen next. They checked six years and found that the average number of hurricanes and big hurricanes â ones in Categories 3, 4, or 5 â was a little more than usual. The ACE, which measures how strong storms are and long hurricanes last, was also higher than normal.
Analog years for the 2025 Hurricane Season forecast that Colorado State University used.
All of those six years had two things in common: First, waters in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean were warmer than average. Warm water, specifically, temperatures at or above 80 degrees, provides the fuel needed for storms to develop and blossom into hurricanes.
Sea surface water temperatures from late March (Via WeatherModels.com)
During the peak of hurricane season, from August to October, the El Niño Southern Oscillation is expected to be either normal or in a La Niña phase. This phenomenon indicates the deviation of water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, by Peru’s coastline, from their typical levels.
In El Niño, hurricanes are less likely to occur. Thatâs because the wind shear â change of wind direction as you go up in height â increases in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean, where storms form. That rips these storms apart.
In La Niña, the opposite occurs. Thereâs less wind shear, providing developing storms with a more relaxed environment in which to strengthen.
In reality, the most likely situation is that things will be pretty normal. The water in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean would be about average in temperature. But when you mix that normal state with the warmer-than-usual temperatures expected in the Atlantic Ocean, it leads to a forecast thatâs higher than normal.
Probability of a three month period seeing a La Nina (blue), Neutral state (gray) or an El Nino (Red). The months use the first letter of the name on the bottom. (Via National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).
Of course, it only takes one storm near us for it to be remembered as an active season. Thatâs where Colorado Stateâs forecast shines. They are able to forecast the chances of a tropical storm, hurricane or major hurricane being within 50 miles of a stateâs coastline.
For New Jersey, itâs a slightly higher than average chance.
Named Storm: 28%, Avg. 23%
Hurricane: 9%, Avg. 7%
Major Hurricane: 1%, Avg. 1%
So itâs still a low chance that we see a direct or near-direct hit. Usually we receive a soaking rain of one or two remnant storms. The exception was last year, and that was a problem. That helped lead to our ongoing drought, and was mostly responsible for October, 2024, being our driest month, statewide, since records began in 1895, according to the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist.
Weâre still weeks away from hurricane season, but now is a good time to prepare. Do you have a âgo bagâ filled with water, medication, a light source and pet supplies? Is your flood insurance up to date? Do you know where you would go if you needed to evacuate?
Hopefully we wonât have to face such an emergency this year. However, like anything in life, preparation is key.
Joe Martucci, a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist and Digital Meteorologist, is the President and Director of Meteorology for Cup A Joe Weather and Drone. You can connect with him at cupajoe.live/.
