A nor’easter is coming to the Jersey Shore this week, but this one has a twist. Little to no rain is expected, yet tidal flooding, gusty winds and beach erosion will still cause problems along the coast.
The storm’s effects will begin Tuesday, October 20, and could last into Friday morning, October 23. While this storm should not be as damaging as September’s nor’easter, it will bring another round of coastal flooding to areas still recovering from that storm.
When Will Flooding Be Worst?
Most flooding should stay in the minor category, which means water may cover low-lying roads, parking lots and other flood-prone places.
Here is how the flooding is expected to unfold:
- Tuesday evening: Minor tidal flooding begins in vulnerable coastal communities.
- Wednesday evening: Minor flooding is expected, but moderate flooding is possible in Atlantic and Cape May counties.
- Thursday morning: Another high tide could bring moderate flooding to parts of the southern Jersey Shore.
- Thursday evening into Friday morning: Some leftover tidal flooding remains possible as conditions improve.
Moderate flooding could lead to deeper water on roads and more travel problems than minor flooding.
Our ShorelySafe Flood Mapper shows how these water levels could affect individual streets.
In Highlands, Monmouth County, a forecast for Wednesday shows a few inches of water in typical flood-prone areas near Bay Avenue and Valley Street.
In Cape May, the difference between minor and moderate flooding could be much greater. Near Bank Street, our reasonable worst-case scenario shows water depths exceeding one foot Wednesday evening. That is a possible higher-impact outcome, not the most likely forecast.
Wind and Beach Erosion
Wednesday will likely be the windiest day. Gusts could reach 30 to 35 mph along the beaches, although widespread wind damage is not expected.
The steady northeast winds will also push water toward the shoreline, causing additional beach erosion. Even limited erosion matters after the damage left behind by September’s nor’easter.
Inland communities should see few problems, with mostly dry weather expected through the week. A brief shower is possible early Thursday.
By Friday, winds should ease and conditions should improve. Better yet, the Jersey Shore could enjoy its first completely dry weekend since July 25-26.
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Know More: Why a Dry Nor’easter Can Still Cause Flooding
The key to this storm is the pressure pattern, not precipitation.
A low-pressure system will remain offshore, generally between North Carolina and Cape Cod through Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong high-pressure system will sit over New England.
The high-pressure system should help keep the storm’s main rain shield offshore. However, the pressure difference between these systems will produce persistent north and northeast winds along the New Jersey coast.
These winds create what meteorologists call wind setup. Water is pushed toward the coast, raising water levels above what astronomical tides alone would produce.
The amount of flooding depends on several factors, including wind speed, wind duration, fetch, coastline orientation and the timing of high tide.
This explains why the storm can produce coastal flooding without significant rainfall.
Another important factor is the duration of the onshore flow. When elevated water levels persist through several tidal cycles, water may not fully drain from back bays before the next high tide arrives.
Forecast ensembles help us examine a range of possible storm tracks and impacts. While confidence is relatively high that significant rainfall will remain offshore, smaller differences in wind direction, strength and duration could determine whether flooding stays minor or reaches moderate levels.
By Thursday afternoon, winds should shift northwest, helping push water away from the coast and allowing elevated water levels to gradually fall.
