October gave New Jersey a chance to catch its breath after September’s damaging nor’easter. Sunny days, colorful leaves and cool nights made much of the month feel pleasant. Still, the weather left several concerns heading into winter.
In our monthly weather roundup, I joined New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. John Krasting to discuss October’s warmth, rainfall shortage and repeated tidal flooding. Here’s what stood out.
A Warm October, With Record Highs
New Jersey finished October about 2 degrees above average, making it the state’s 20th warmest October, according to the figures shared in our discussion.
The month started with summerlike heat. McGuire Air Force Base reached 88 degrees on October 2, breaking the previous record of 87 set in 1968. That day, 42 of New Jersey’s 70 Mesonet stations reached at least 85 degrees.
Another warm spell arrived near midmonth. On October 14, Estell Manor hit 87 degrees. Atlantic City International Airport and Millville each reached record highs of 85 degrees.
One Rainy Day Carried Much of the Month
Statewide rainfall averaged 2.69 inches, about 1.5 inches below average. That ranked as New Jersey’s 56th driest October.
Much of that rain fell on October 11. Without that event, the monthly statewide total would have been about 0.68 inches, enough to rank as the fourth driest October.
At the Jersey Shore, the dry stretch continued from around October 18 through our November 3 recording. The pleasant weather made outdoor plans easy, but it also raised questions about drought returning.
Dry Conditions Need Watching
As of our discussion, parts of the coastal plain remained “abnormally dry,” the U.S. Drought Monitor’s D0 category. That label falls below its drought categories.
Groundwater was still recovering in parts of the southeast. Meanwhile, dry conditions had returned to parts of Hunterdon and Morris counties, where rainfall shortages were putting pressure on stream flows.
Krasting said water supplies were generally holding up well. However, dry fallen leaves were becoming a wildfire concern as the fall fire season began.
Coastal Flooding Without Much Rain
Quiet skies did not mean quiet conditions along the water.
From October 19–23, northeast winds helped push water toward the coast, bringing repeated rounds of mostly minor tidal flooding. Manahawkin recorded eight high tides with minor flooding during the event.
The flooding was less severe than September’s, but its length stood out. Repeated coastal events also left concerns about beach and dune erosion ahead of winter.
First Freezes Spread Inland
Walpack dropped to 31 degrees on October 6. Freezing temperatures then spread through more inland areas as the month continued.
Many beach communities had yet to freeze by our recording, which fits their usual later timing.
Looking ahead, we’re watching El Niño and possible polar vortex changes. Neither guarantees New Jersey snow. Cold air and coastal storms would still need to come together in the right place at the right time.
